Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 210956
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
356 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A
DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW HAS CUT OFF AT THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN TROF...AND IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH JUST OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH WEAK ENERGY CONTINUING TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUING TO CROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AS WEAK EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SETS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ENERGY
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MID
80S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY LIKELY BEING THE
COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.