Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG IN IFR CONDS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.