Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 200855

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
255 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Latest analysis shows the deep closed low is currently centered
over swrn Nebraska with bands of precipitation rotating around
the low and into parts of western and central South Dakota. The
low pressure system will move slowly eastward today, reaching
northeastern Nebraska by early evening. The rain will gradually
shift eastward today as the low moves away from the forecast area.
Rain will linger over central SD into this afternoon with diurnal
instability possibly supporting sct showers over the
central/southern Black Hills. Low temperatures tonight may be cold
enough for some frost formation, depending on cloud cover. Will
let the day shift determine if/where there may be a need for
frost/freeze headlines tonight.

The upper low will continue to slowly shift eastward, however it
will remain close enough into early next week to support shower
and thunderstorm chances Sun and esp Monday. Phasing NW impulse
will push through the region both days, the strongest being

Deep layer ridging is expected through most of the remainder of
the week. This will bring much warmer weather and dry conds to the
region. Models continue to support NW CONUS troughing by the end
of the week with chances for SHRA/TS returning to the forecast by


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1113 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Mainly VFR conditions expected over northeast WY into northwest
SD through Saturday. For the southwest into north central SD
plains, some MVFR conditions are expected tonight, but then VFR
Saturday. Areas IFR conditions over the Black Hills will continue
overnight, but then improve Saturday. South central SD will
become IFR overnight into Saturday as -RA chances increase along
with patches of -SN.




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