Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 181721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AB...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT
INTO WESTERN SD. MAIN COLD FRONT TAILS BACK WESTWARD FROM THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH TROF MOVING QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME...MOST ABUNDANT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD.

A WARM DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EASTWARD LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY APPROACH LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD MAINLY STAY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN SD BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME 60S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS AND LOWER 80S
LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
BEHIND IT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AS OUR AREA GETS MORE
OF A GLANCING BLOW. THOUGH WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FAST MOVING TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT
AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD FOR VERY LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS EARLY SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT PUSHING
MAIN UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF
CWA...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY LIQUID EVENT. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SLUSHY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND
SYSTEM IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10





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