Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 252055
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

SMALL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NE PANHANDLE
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES YET THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER EASTERN MT-WESTERN
DAKOTAS.

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP
UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WAVES... WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF GENERALLY ACROSS NE INTO SOUTHERN SD...BUT ECMWF
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROF ACROSS MT-ND MORE...WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION OVERN NORTHWESTERN SD...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
WESTERN SD FOR TONIGHT. AIR WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE...BUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TUESDAY...AND WITH CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW...TRACKING FROM UTAH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BETWEEN UPPER LOW AND THE STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBY.
AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...STRATUS WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






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