Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 231724
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Upper trof moving across northern MT eastward with cold front
coming into eastern MT. Warm front from low in southeastern MT
across southern SD. Band of 70+ dewpoints over south central SD,
where some fog may form early this morning. Front will continue
to move to the east, clearing storms and high humidity from the
area. Depending on how fast it will move, some thunderstorms could
form over south central SD during the late morning and early
afternoon. Northwest winds will increase behind the front across
northwestern SD, with a few hours of 40 mph gusts. As the trof
moves toward the upper Great Lakes, a weak short wave crossing on
the northwest flow may produce some precipitation Sunday. 1000
j/kg CAPE over the Black Hills and upslope southeast surface winds
could help thunderstorm development. Temperatures will be much
cooler today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A series of shortwaves passing through nearly zonal flow will
bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region
next week. Highs will start in the 90s on Monday, gradually
cooling to the mid 80s by the end of the week. Models are hinting
at drier weather for next weekend as an upper ridge builds over
the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1123 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

look for winds to gust as high as 40kts through 23z
across the krap terminal as gusty nw winds will be found on the
backside of an exiting cold front. Winds will begin to diminish
aftwards...with winds under 10 kts for both krap and kgcc expected
by 03z. Look for good vfr conds with unrestricted vsbys through
valid portion of terminal forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Cold front will cross the area today with gusty northwest winds
increasing. Minimum relative humidities will drop below 20
percent for northeast Wyoming and 15 to 25 percent for much of
western South Dakota, so watch will be upgraded to Red Flag
Warning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ260>262-264.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

Update...Hintz
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Hintz
FIRE WEATHER...55



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