Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 170939

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
339 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Upper level analysis has near zonal flow from the Pacific
Northwest through the northern Plains. Upper shortwave in this
flow is moving into the forecast area early this morning,
producing widespread light rain showers. At the surface, weak low
pressure was located across eastern ND with high pressure over the
northern Rockies. Temperatures at 3am are in the 50s and 60s.

Today...Upper shortwave will cross the forecast area and shift
into eastern SD by this afternoon. Precipitation will continue,
but gradually diminish through the day. Hi-res convective models
are indicating a few afternoon thunderstorms possible across
northwestern SD, which is supported by increasing instability
through the day. Cold air advection will enhance gusty winds
across the SD plains late morning to early evening, although
pressure rises are not too impressive. Models are in good
agreement of 25-35 mph winds across northwestern into west central
SD. Strongest winds are expected across northwestern SD, but low-
end advisory criteria will probably be reached in the Rapid City
area. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from late morning through
early evening for the northwest and west central SD plains. Highs
will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Tonight...As upper shortwave shifts east and atmosphere begins to
decouple, winds and precipitation will diminish. Surface high
pressure slowly builds into the area with mostly clear skies
expected. Lows will be in the 40s.

Sunday into next week, strong upper ridging will build back into the
region with generally dry weather expected. Sunday will be mainly
in the 70s, with temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s by
Monday and Tuesday. The warm temperatures will stick around
through Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures by Friday. Low
temperatures will warm back to the 50s and 60s for much of next

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1044 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Rain showers will continue overnight with scattered MVFR cigs and
vsby. Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight and isolated
IFR cigs are possible around the Black Hills and across
northeastern Wyoming. Clouds will diminish Saturday morning while
gusty northwest winds increase. Surface winds of 25 to 35 mph can
be expected by midday over the portions of the western South
Dakota plains.


SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
     for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.



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