Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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283
FXUS63 KUNR 110530
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WEST. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
AT THE SURFACE...STATIONERY BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST AND
NOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WINDS ARE BREEZY OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...AND TEMPERATURES AT 2PM ARE MOSTLY IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...WITH SURFACE
STATIONERY BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOSHING BACK WEST
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A DECK OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE FAITH AREA THROUGH PHILIP...AND OVER TO WINNER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PASS OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S FARTHER WEST. FOG MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACK WESTWARD INTO WY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
A COOL-DOWN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
OVER CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY. BOUNDARY WILL
THEN MOVE BACK EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WEAKER SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. PCPN TYPE AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY AND LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
DAY. MAIN CHANCES FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA WITH WEAKER
DISTURBANCES. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THESE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD...IF TEMPS WARM
SUFFICIENTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

IFR/LIFR ST/FG DECK ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. PATCH -FZDZ MAY OCCUR. A FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST SD
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DRIVE A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA
RESULTING IN THE ST/FG MIXING OUT/PUSHING EAST BY MIDDAY ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE ST/FG WILL THEN AGAIN MOVE WEST
LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND A
BIGGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON



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