Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 172016
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
216 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES. VIS SAT SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK OVER
NW/CNTRL SD CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TONIGHT OVER NE WY/FAR WRN SD
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND SAT NIGHT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SATURDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
INTO SAT NIGHT. BREEZY S/SE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AN
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
COULD SEE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS
HAVE RETAINED THEM IN THE LATEST FORECAST. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IF ANYTHING. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBOUND
AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR FOR THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER
KRAP...KGCC WILL SEE WINDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS






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