Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 170450
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1050 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Upper level analysis shows weak ridging/nearly zonal
flow over the northwestern portion of the CONUS, with a 90 kt jet
moving over the northern plains. A weak wave continues to push
through the region. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, and radar
shows a few light showers over the area. Winds are variable
around 10 kts, and temperatures are climbing into the 80s.

As another upper shortwave trough approaches the northern plains
this evening and overnight, a cold front will cross the region.
Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase, but
CAPE is minimal, so severe weather is not anticipated. Lows tonight
will be generally in the 50s.

Precipitation will continue into Saturday, but gradually diminish
through the day as the wave shifts east. Hi-res convective models
are indicating a few thunderstorms across northwestern SD, which
is supported by increasing instability in the morning. Cold air
advection will enhance gusty winds across the SD plains Saturday
late morning to early evening, although pressure rises are not too
impressive. Models are in good agreement of 25-35 mph winds
across northwestern into west central SD. Strongest winds are
expected across northwestern SD, but low-end advisory criteria
will probably be reached in the Rapid City area. Will go ahead
with a Wind Advisory. Saturday evening, winds and precipitation
will diminish. Highs will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s, and
lows will be in the 40s.

Sunday into next week, strong upper ridging will build back into the
region with generally dry weather expected. Sunday will be mainly
in the 70s, with temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s by
Monday and Tuesday. The warm temperatures will stick around
through Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures by Friday. Low
temperatures will warm back to the 50s and 60s for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1044 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Rain showers will continue to increase overnight with scattered
MVFR cigs and vsby. Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight and
isolated IFR cigs are possible around the Black Hills and across
northeastern Wyoming. Clouds will diminish Saturday morning while
gusty northwest winds increase. Surface winds of 25 to 35 mph can
be expected by midday over the portions of the western South
Dakota plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...MLS



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