Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 272032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM 06Z THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...MLS



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