Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 290443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON


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