Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 040905
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS WY CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN THETA E ADVECTION.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG NERN FRINGE
OF THETA E BOUNDARY. SHEAR. MODELS SHOWING STORMS CONTINUING EWRD
OVER CNTRL SD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MORE POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO
NE WY. OVERALL A GENERALLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA.
CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT 160-180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY TO THE BLKHLS INTO NW SD. RIGHT
MOVER MOTION STILL VERY SLOW...SO ANY STRONGER ROTATING STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP A LOT OF WATER. WILL KEEP FFA HEADLINES
GOING FOR THIS PM.

MODELS SHOWING A DRY LINE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA WED MRNG WITH
STORMS PUSHING E/NE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH THIS DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. LOOKS
LIKE SUNSHINE COULD RETURN DURING THE DAY FOR THE BLKHLS AREA BEFORE
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECREASED POPS DURING
THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING RETURNS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST WED...ALSO RAISED
TEMPS UP INTO THE 80 TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ACTIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FIRST SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND EAST EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UPPER
LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/...WITH SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS/VSBY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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