Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 290926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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