Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 212015
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
315 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Moist cyclonic flow dominated the region this afternoon, combining
with daytime heating and weak shortwave energy moving across
northern WI and Upper Michigan to produce a lot of clouds along
with isolated to scattered showers. Already seeing the coverage of
the showers diminish early this afternoon and that trend will
continue through the early evening with all showers coming to an
end by around sunset as influence of the cyclonic flow weakens, we
lose daytime heating effects, and surface ridging builds in from
the west. Clouds will also clear out through the late afternoon
and evening hours with mostly clear skies expected the rest of the
night. It will be on the chilly side tonight, especially over
northern WI where low temps should drop into the 40s.

Clearing skies, light winds, recent rains, cooler temps, and some
moisture trapped under a low level inversion will create the
potential for fog development overnight, mainly across central and
north central WI. Patchy dense fog is possible, especially in low
lying areas.

On Monday, after any fog lifts in the early morning hours, look
for mostly sunny skies as the surface ridge moves across the
Great Lakes. Southwest return flow kicks into gear Monday
afternoon with the strongest warm air advection staying toward
the Mississippi Valley, so not expecting much of its influence to
impact the area through mid-late afternoon. Could be a few clouds
in the afternoon, especially over north central WI and winds
getting a little gusty out of the southwest, but looks to be about
it as moisture is lacking to produce anything more. Temps will
respond nicely as heights rise over the area. Highs look to climb
into the mid 70s to around 80 for most spots.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

An upper jet moving across Lake Superior and Upper
Michigan could produce some showers or sprinkles falling from
middle clouds Monday night or early Tuesday, but think there is a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a northward
moving warm front Tuesday night and a cold front moving through
Wednesday afternoon or evening. Severe potential Wednesday looks
to be limited by elevated warm and dry air layer.

Warmer and more humid air will arrive Tuesday and continue
Wednesday. High pressure will bring dry and seasonable
conditions for Thursday through Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Moist cyclonic flow behind a departing low pressure system
combined with daytime heating will keep plenty of clouds across
the area through the afternoon hours, with scattered to isolated
showers also expected. Look for mainly vfr cigs/vsbys through
early evening, with brief mvfr conditions possible in any heavier
shower. Clouds and any shower activity will diminish late this
afternoon and evening.

Met/mav guidance not showing any fog tonight; however, overall
setup pretty good for fog development overnight. Light winds,
clear skies, recent rains, and moisture trapped under an inversion
should allow fog, some dense, to form especially in the low lying
areas. Other than the fog, mostly clear skies are expected
overnight into Monday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Bersch



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