Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 281952
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH OF AREA AND SUN
SETS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...A BIT EAST OF SUNDAY SYSTEM. TIMING AND LOCATION SUCH
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IN FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST MU-CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HIGHER VALUES ASSUME SOME SUN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB
ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUGGEST STORMS WITH HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR TEMP FORECAST GIVEN
FAMILIAR PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ML.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS OCCURRING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AIRPORTS
WITH LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OCNL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. MOST OF RAIN AREA
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF FOX VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM THE NW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......JKL


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