Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 271157
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AT 09Z WITH BEST PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA. SO WE EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK OVER OSHKOSH AND WIND UP NEAR SAULT SAINTE MARIE BY MIDDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE 925MB AND 850MB LOWS FAVOR THE BEST SNOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MILD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN IN THE FOX VALLEY AND THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THE
EASTERN PARTS OF WAUPACA, SHAWANO AND OCONTO COUNTIES WILL NOT
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. PLACES WITH NEW SNOW COVER COULD GET QUITE COLD IF
SKIES ARE CLEAR. BETTING THAT THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AROUND SO DID
NOT GO AS LOW AS WE COULD IF WE KNEW SKIES WOULD BE CLEAR. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE COLDER WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN VILAS
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROMINENT WESTERN RIDGE WHILE 500MB CLOSED LOW ROTATES OVER
HUDSON BAY. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO REMAIN FIRMLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STATUS QUO AND HAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. NOT UNUSUAL FOR ARCTIC COLD FRONTS TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE NEW YEAR. UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY...WHILE
ECMWF HAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS MILD PACIFIC AIR SPILLS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. 850MB WARM ADVECTION WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA...A SURE SIGN ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THE WESTERN RIDGE IS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SNOW IN MOST PLACES
THIS MORNING AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EAST OF A
MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>012-
018>020-030-031-035>037.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ013-
021-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM





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