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000
FXUS63 KGRB 012110
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
310 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LIFT COMBINED
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 5000FT. FARTHER EAST...
DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEPT THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS...
EVEN ERODING MANY OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AS THEY TRIED TO PUSH EAST.
THE LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY PUSHED INTO EASTERN WI BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. LINGERING
FLURRIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH TO KEEP SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER
THE NORTH (TODAY IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THAT) SO WILL LINGER A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...AND A SUNNY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...INCLUDING THE ECMWFBC AND SREFBC...WHICH HAVE LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO AROUND 10 IN
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY AS TEMPS BELOW 2000FT REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW JET ENERGY FROM THE
POLAR JET TO RACE NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PRODUCE A MODEST
SURFACE CYCLONE THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER
MICHIGAN. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THREE OR FOUR INCHES LIKELY
IN MOST PLACES.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH SOME MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE VERY COLD WITH 20 BELOW OR COLDER IN
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS MOVING INLAND TO
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT RISE QUICKLY TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND VFR CIGS LOWERING MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN WI.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINOR. MAINLY MVFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KRHI AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SW
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH
INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......BERSCH