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000
FXUS63 KGRB 140924
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
424 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW QUICKLY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH A
SOUTHERN EDGE FEATURE TRACKING OVER THE FOX CITES. IN ADDITION
TRACK OF THE 850 LOW SUPPORTS HIGHER ACCUMULATION FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WOULD HAVE NO ISSUE ISSUING A
WARNING FOR A PURE WINTER SITUATION...BUT SNOW FALLING ON A WARM
GROUND AND MIX EARLY PLAYS HAVOC WITH SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS.

HOWEVER RAIN TO SNOW FAST ENOUGH TO EXPAND ADVISORY INTO THE FOX
CITIES. NOT CONFIDENT OF AMOUNTS BUT ANTICIPATE ROADS WILL BE
SLIPPERY FOR THE COMMUTE.

COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH FROM NORTHWEST TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
WEEK. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN FROM THE PLAINS. NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE RAIN
AND/OR SNOW FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THAT MAY BRING 5 TO 8 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY FOR A WHILE. POPS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

RAIN WAS NOW BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...REACHING KGRB/KATW AROUND 09Z
AND KMTW AROUND 11Z. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY MID MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHORT
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PRESSURE COUPLET PASSING THROUGH.
LOCALIZED GALE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH DEATHS DOOR AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPIRED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WILL HANDLE HYDRO ISSUES WITH RIVER
STATEMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL ALSO LET THE FLOOD ADVISORY GOING FOR
PARTS OF WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET COUNTIES. THE MANITOWOC RIVER WAS
RISING BUT STILL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 3 AM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ011>013-019>021-031-037>039-048-049-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
MARINE.........TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH