Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 240006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
706 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB






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