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000
FXUS63 KGRB 110006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
706 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

SUBSTANTIAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WL REMAIN ACRS NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE POSN OF THE MAIN FEATURES WL BE PRETTY MUCH WHAT IT/S BEEN
ALL WINTER...A RIDGE OUT NR THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF
OVER CENTRAL/ERN NOAM. THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION IN AMPLITUDE WL
OCCUR...IT WL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST
OF THE WINTER.

THE AIR MASS ACRS THE FCST AREA WL CHANGE BETWEEN MILD MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIR TO CANADIAN AIR AS THE UPR FLOW CHANGES FM WLY TO NWLY
WITH THE OSCILLATIONS IN AMPLITUDE. THAT WL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE FCST
PERIOD. THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EMERGING TREND TOWARD A RETURN TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED AND IT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ANY STG ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS WL
AFFECT THE AREA...SO PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKLEY TO END UP BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON IMPENDING PCPN CHCS LATE TNGT INTO TUE
AS A SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS BRIEF RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO LAST ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES AT MID-WEEK.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HI PRES SITUATED OVER THE TN VALLEY. A
WEAK CDFNT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW PRES S-SW THRU ERN WI AND
PROVIDED FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW. THIS FRONT HAD LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPS AS NE WI ENJOYED ITS WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR
WITH PLENTY OF UPR 40S TO MID 50S...AND EVEN A FEW UPR 50S BEING
REPORTED.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SENDING AN AREA OF LOW PRES INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS TNGT. TRAILING THIS SFC LOW IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED
FROM CO EWD TO IA. EXPECT TO SEE A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY-
FORCED PCPN DEVELOP FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPR MS VALLEY TNGT...
AIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET. FOR NE WI...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING...
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN APPROACHING CNTRL WI BY
DAYBREAK. PCPN TYPE IS A CONCERN WITH TEMPS OVER CNTRL WI EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHEN THE PCPN WOULD ARRIVE. WHILE A
LITTLE SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...
TO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY ON TUE...THE
TIGHT 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALSO SHIFT EAST PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. THE NRN FRINGE OF
THIS PCPN SHIELD NOW LOOKS TO REACH UP TO HWY 29 AND WL NEED TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. PCPN TYPE REMAINS AN ISSUE AS SFC TEMPS CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING SENDS TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
BELOW FREEZING. MIXED PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THE MIXED PCPN
UNDERWAY...THUS ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. NRN WL
MISS OUT ON THE PCPN ALTOGETHER AND ONLY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS THRU TUE. BY TUE AFTERNOON...HI PRES OVER MANITOBA/WRN
ONTARIO WL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND START TO FORCE THE PCPN BAND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME.
MILD START TO THE DAY WL BE BALANCED BY THE PLETHORA OF
CLOUDS/PCPN SOUTH...THUS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMPS ON TUE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 DEG
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

PCPN BAND ASSOC WITH MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WL SHIFT S OF
THE AREA TUE EVENING. BUT SHARPENING UPR TROF WL BE APPROACHING FM
THE W...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WL BE CONVERGENT. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LAKE-EFFECT AS PATCHES OF OPEN WATER PERSIST ON LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. SO EXPECT SCT SHSN ACRS THE AREA DURING THE
NGT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS GET AN INCH OF
SNOW...BUT A DUSTING WL BE FAR MORE COMMON.

THE SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND END WED AS DRIER AIR
SURGES SWD ACRS THE AREA. CLDS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE. THAT WILL
LEAD TO FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY
WED NGT...BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF MID-CLDS HEAD INTO THE AREA FM
THE W. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP WELL ON THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THAT WE/VE GOT AN OLDER SNOWCOVER AND THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG A PERIOD THERE WL BE WITH
LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...IT DID NOT SEEM WISE TO FIGHT GUIDANCE
ON THIS ONE. BUT IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE JUST RIGHT...IT
COULD GET QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE HAVE IN THE FCST.

BAND OF SNOW IN ISENT LIFT ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT EWD PUSH OF
PACIFIC AIR WL SLIDE THROUGH MAINLY THE NERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WED NGT AND THU MORNING. COULD SEE MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW IN
THE NE PART OF THE AREA...WITH LESS ELSEWHERE.

A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR GETS
ESTABLISHED ACRS THE FCST AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THAT COLD SNAP
WL PROBABLY LAST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH TEMPS DON/T
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. DID NOT NOTE ANY
GLARING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TNGT AS MID/HI CLOUDS INCREASE
THRU THE NGT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
IMPACT THE SRN HALF OF WI ON TUE WITH PCPN TYPE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH TEMPS BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDING AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. INITIALLY...THE PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING MORE TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKS SWD ACROSS THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT COMPLETELY SATURATE OVER CENTRAL OR
EAST-CENTRAL WI. HAVE KEPT KAUW/KCWA/KATW/KGRB DRY AT THIS POINT
WI. HIGHEST PROBABILITY TO SEE RAIN/SNOW AT KMTW. NRN WI TO REMAIN
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WAY TO DECLINING TEMPS
THROUGH MID-WEEK AND SLOW DOWN THE MELTING PROCESS. ANY PROBLEMS
FROM THE RUN OFF SHOULD STILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EAST OF THE FOX
RIVER TO THE LAKESHORE.

IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A LONGER DURATION SNOW MELT FOR RUN OFF TO
START IMPACTING STREAMS AND RIVERS. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......KALLAS