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000
FXUS63 KGRB 211954
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CU NOW DEVELOPING OVER CWA...SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. LIMITED
IN VERTICAL EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER WI.
FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK. MODELS ALL SHOWING MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTH DAKOTA ALONG STATIONARY FRONT AS SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. THOUGHTS FOR MCS TO DEVELOP
INTO DERECHO AS MOVES EAST INTO REGION OF HIGH INSTABILITY.
CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT...WITH SYSTEM BRUSHING NORTHERN CWA. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI. HAVE STAYED
WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CIN WILL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME SOUTH AWAY FROM STRONGER FORCING.

FRONT TO MAKE WAY THROUGH CWA ON TUE...MAKING IT INTO SE CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ON THIS FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS. QUESTION WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE AS THE FLOW IN LOW LEVELS VEERS WESTERLY.
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ERN WI.

TEMPS TUE ESPECIALLY TRICKY DUE TO TSTMS AND POSSIBLE CLOUD
DEBRIS. STAYED CLOSE OR A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY WESTERN RIDGE
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSER TO NORMAL...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD FALL BELOW NORMAL AS DEEPER TROUGH/CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. DO BELIEVE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AFTER 00Z SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA.  DID REMOVE
ANY MENTION/DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DID NOT GET TO SEE THE 12Z
ECMWF...BUT 00Z RUN BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN/GFS
CONTINUED TO SHOW CONSISTENT TIMING WITH THESE FEATURE...SO LITTLE
CHANGES MADE TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES. QUESTION OF FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT NORTH AND TUE AFTN OVER FOX VALLEY AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION. WINDS ABOVE THE SFC TNGT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
LLWS...HAVE ADDED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
STRONG...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND ONWARD TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS TO LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. HIGH WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE
MARINE.........TE