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000
FXUS63 KGRB 140857
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH WSTRN WI
HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS GRB CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD
ACROSS MN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND MUCH COLDER READINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WERE SEEN WELL NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EXPECT A VERY MILD DAY TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICAL WARM CORRIDOR
FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO TO WAUSAUKEE. A COUPLE MODELS DEVELOP SOME
WEAK CONVECTION NEAR OUR SE COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A S/W TROF
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTACT FOR
THIS AREA...AS MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN WI...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE MID-RANGE POPS OVER
NC WI...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN VILAS COUNTY. PCPN SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NW MN SHOULD ALSO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. SCT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN WI BY SATURDAY. A PASSING
JET STREAK MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH...THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK...AMPLIFIES AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDWEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE THEY STARTED TO DIVERGE. THE 00Z GFS HAD A CLOSED
500MB CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THEN MOVING TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH A CLOSED 500MB CYCLONE REACHING UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT
THIS POINT. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS WERE PRETTY MUCH DRY FOR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND THEN WASHING OUT AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD. HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AS A RESULT OF THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE SNOW.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. A
GENERAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

MID CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH/DEVELOP OVER STATE TONIGHT AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY EARLY FRI MORNING. LLWS WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE KICK IN MID EVENING. COLD AIR MASS LAGS INITIAL
FRONT...MOVING IN LATER FRI NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW FRI AFTN MAINLY NORTH...WHERE ATMOSPHERE MAY
SATURATE AND WINDS SHIFT TO OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE