Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 221018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
418 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 417 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Low pressure over southern Iowa will move slowly to the east
northeast today as the closed upper low moves east from the
central Plains. Precipitation type is not usually a concern when a
storm moves along this track, but there is not an arctic high
over southern Canada to deliver cold air in the low level this
time, so precipitation type will be an issue.

Model forecast soundings suggest that it will be cold enough for
mostly snow roughly north of a Wausau to Antigo to Wausaukee line,
and six to eight inches looks possible. From Wisconsin Rapids to
Shawano to Oconto there should be a mixture of snow, sleet,
freezing rain and rain with some accumulation. Fox Valley and
lakeshore areas will have largely rain based on forecast boundary
layer temperatures, but it wouldn`t take much cooling to get snow.
Temperatures today will only rise three or four degrees due to
precipitation and cloud cover.

The precipitation will change to all snow before it diminishes tonight.
The majority of the snow that falls will be in the evening hours. Lows
tonight will remain well above normal. Light snow is likely Tuesday
morning in eastern Wisconsin before the system exits the region. Some
small accumulation is possible. It will be blustery and colder that
today, but still milder than normal.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 417 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Forecast concerns in this portion of the forecast revolve around
temperatures, and precipitation potential late this week.  The
medium range models are in good agreement so a general model blend
will suffice.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Weak shortwave energy will
be passing across the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Mid
and high clouds will be on the increase on Tuesday night with
saturation occurring above 700mb.  Though this shortwave is
disjointed, with low level moisture lagging behind moisture aloft,
wouldnt be surprised to see some flurries or light snow fall out
these mid-clouds late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The multi-model
blend is not optimistic about precip, so will keep the area dry
until we get closer to this time period.  After the mid-level
moisture departs Wednesday afternoon, low clouds will likely move
across the area into Wednesday night, and progged soundings indicate
that a low overcast deck or fog could stick around through much of
the night.

Rest of the forecast...Dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and
Thursday night as warmer air surges into the region.  Clouds will be
on the increase on Friday ahead of the next cold front.  Some
timing/detail differences in the models, but it appears that
moisture will be quite limited, so precip chances will be low.  If
precip does occur, is likely to be rather light, which will limit
potential impacts to the region.  Colder air will push into the area
behind the front for next weekend, with some snow showers possible
over northern WI.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

LIFR cigs and vsbys due to fog continue to spread over
northeast Wisconsin tonight. The rest of the area still in VFR
conditions but will deteriorate later tonight as a winter storm
approaches the area. Overnight mainly rain is expected across the
Fox Valley/lakeshore and a rain/snow mix across Door county into
central Wisconsin. The precipitation is expected to change over to
all snow over the rest of the region Monday afternoon into Monday
evening as colder air works into the region.

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for WIZ022-

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ020-

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ030.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ005-


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