Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 251206
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA WILL ENTER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.

LOTS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AN UPPER JET. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND TEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP SO WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN
OR SNOW POSSIBLE. IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE DESPITE THE
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD AIR TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES...BRINGING AN END TO THE MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOKING MORE POTENT..THUS
HAVE INCREASE SNOW TOTALS CLOSE TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY. THE CANADIAN/ECMWF IS EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AND COULD END UP WITH AN ADVISORY EVENT (3 TO 5 INCHES).
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES REMAIN ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
DUE TO WARM AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE NEW YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

CHRISTMAS DAY AVIATORS WILL FIND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR IN MOST
PLACES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM





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