Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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101
FXUS63 KGRB 030317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1017 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

LINGERING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S AND CAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 800 J/KG INDICATE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL. WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH



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