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000
FXUS63 KGRB 301715
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WERE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING AS DRIER COLDER AIR ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
POURING INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WERE ALSO TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS NORTHWARD...BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE BACK ON THE
INCREASE TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND 80 KT JET LET.

WAA PCPN WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SYSTEM ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA
SO MINOR POPS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE WARMER START SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
STATE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
BACK A BIT AND BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE EAST.

EXPECT GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY ON MONDAY...BUT WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL THEN IMPACT
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM WILL BE
COLD...THOUGH COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
TNGT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAINLY TO NRN WI.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER TNGT INTO SAT
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF A MODEST CDFNT. THIS CDFNT IS
FCST TO REACH CNTRL WI AROUND 12Z AND THE LAKE MI SHORELINE
AROUND 15Z. WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE NW FOR SAT MORNING AND CONT TO
SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE N-NE BY 00Z SUNDAY. CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE
MVFR RANGE OVER THE RHI...AUW AND CWA TAF SITES THRU AT LEAST
MIDDAY SAT BEFORE RISING INTO THE LOW-END VFR CATEGORY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK