Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 290215
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
915 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHT`S FCST...WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED OVER NC/FAR NE WI...AND ISOLD LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS THE S/W
TROF EXITS LATE TONIGHT...BUT LAKE-ENHANCED PCPN WILL CONTINUE
OVER FAR NC WI INTO WEDS MORNING.

AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
SYSTEM...DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO EXPAND THE
AREA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMS AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL HAZARDS INTO FAR NE
WI. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS ON THE
BAY/LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A MUCH MORE AUTUMN-LOOK TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NE WI IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A CLOSED UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PULLS DOWN A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS
TO BE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN WI TNGT...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATE
TNGT AND CLOUD TREND IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SE
QUEBEC WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED S-SW THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A
SECONDARY TROF STRETCHED WEST ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY DUE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW
ALOFT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER THESE CLOUDS...THE RADAR
MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF MN/WI AND MOST OF UPR MI. TEMPS HAD PEAKED AROUND
MIDDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...WL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH PCPN CHCS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TNGT. AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE W-NW LATER TNGT...THERE
IS AN INCREASING RISK OF LAKE-ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH
MIGHT BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO VILAS CNTY AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LWR 30S. THE REST OF NE WI TO SEE MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S.

LAKE EFFECT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WL LINGER THRU WED MORNING ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI...BUT TEND TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES. THE
AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL QUITE COOL (8H TEMPS AROUND -2C)...THUS
ANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WOULD TEND TO FILL IN WITH A
CU FIELD. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH
MAX TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER (LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...NEAR 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI).

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW GOING FOR NORTHERN
VILAS COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST THRU TNGT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORIES UNTIL A WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES CENTRAL WI WED AFTERNOON. PCPN CHCS WILL BE GREATEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROF...CONTINUED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. LIGHTER SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. LINGERING
LAKE-EFFECT PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER NC WI BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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