Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 191757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET COMBINES WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOISTURE IS LACKING SO ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS ARE TOO WESTERLY FOR HEAVY SNOW IN VILAS
COUNTY DESPITE EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD IN
VILAS COUNTY WITH LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND.  AS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SPREAD IS INCREASING
RAPIDLY BY THIS TIME...SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH 1000-850MB WINDS ARE
AROUND 15 KNOTS...A LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO
DECOUPLING OF WINDS LATE.  THIS SHOULD PROMOTE TUMBLING TEMPERATURES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START
TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BUT THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE A FREEZING DRIZZLE
LOOK TO THEM DUE TO A DRY WEDGE PRESENT ABOVE 800MB.  SOME SNOW
COULD FEED INTO THE LOWER CLOUDS...SO WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF BOTH
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.  LOW TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN
RISE ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON IN MANY
PLACES.  PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.  WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MEAN ALL
LIQUID FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
POSSIBLY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION...COLDER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST MAY ONLY
SEE AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

CEILINGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR. SNOW
SHOULD DIMINISH TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR IN MANY LOCATIONS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BLOW.
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GOING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG






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