Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 180850
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
350 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING OF UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO/THROUGH STATE THIS PERIOD. DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT...SIG MOISTURE WITH PW AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT ALSO SHOWING LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE MAINLY TONIGHT WHICH ALSO POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. LIMITED SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MESO MODELS FOR POP TRENDS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAKENING
STACKED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THIS PERIOD
BUT SLOWLY DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ANTICIPATE A DIMINISHED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR DRY PERIOD TOWARD
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTING OVER THE AREA. BUT THERE IS A TREND OF A RETURN TO MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HOW FAST THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON WARM FRONT LOCATION AND
TIMING...HOWEVER VERY HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES PROGGED TO
WORK BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SO ANY SHOWER OR
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED AT TIMES BY PRECIPITATION BUT
FOR MOST DAYS THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
GRADUAL HEIGHT INCREASES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINTS SPREADS WERE NARROWING. FOG SHOULD...HOPEFULLY NOT GET
OUT OF HAND AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST INTO
THE AREA. THE OTHER ISSUE IS TO TIME PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF
SITES. LATEST HRR WOULD SUGGEST FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
ONCE THE FIRST ROUND EXITS THE AREA...MORE REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR DEPENDING
ON YOUR SPOT DUE TO PRECIPITATION OR FOG. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO COVER THE EXPECTED WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A RATHER JUICY AIR MASS. THIS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA MUCH OF
THIS NEXT WEEK. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TDH/TE







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