Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 160826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
326 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A cold front which produced a period of convection across the area
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening continues to slide
south of the area. A surface high pressure area will build into
the area from the north today and settle over the region tonight
into monday as an upper ridge nudges into the western Great Lakes
region. A period of dry conditions will prevail today and into
the start of the new work week.

Main forecast issues are in the today period, first dealing with
the cloud trends in the north to northeast flow, and second with
the potential of gusty north to northeast winds over eastern
Wisconsin and lake shore region.

At 2 am, satellite shows widespread lower level clouds over Upper
Michigan working southward into far northern and northeast
Wisconsin. As a result, anticipate a period of clouds this am and
then a dissipating southward clearing trend as dry air settles
southward from the north. Data suggests surface dewpoints will
linger to around 60 degrees for much of the morning over east
central and central Wisconsin before dropping late morning into
the afternoon. Forecast soundings are indicating a period of light
precipitation or drizzle this morning as well where clouds linger.

Developing pressure gradient this morning and mixing this
afternoon indicate a potential of some wind gusts to 20 to 25 mph
along the lakeshore or eastern wisconsin before the high pressure
area settles into the area later today.

Cooler but comfortable temperatures in the lower to mid 70s
expected today then returning closer to normal levels Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Upper level flow is forecast to flatten out early in the long
term, with low amplitude flow then expected at least through the
end of this forecast. Model consistency is an issue in the more
zonal flow so forecast confidence is below average.

Tuesday afternoon and night look to have the best chance for
showers and storms as a cold front and mid level short wave
move across the region. The front is forecast to stall to our
south before moving back to the north later in the week. The
proximity of the front and the progressive upper flow make
resolving precipitation chances a significant challenge for the
rest of the forecast. A blend of the medium range models yields
PoPs in at least some part of the forecast area in just about
every forecast period through Saturday. Abundant moisture across
the area could result in torrential rainfall with thunderstorms
that do develop.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday, but
after the cold front passes it looks to be near or a little
warmer than normal for the rest of this part of the forecast.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have ended behind a departing cold
front. In its wake mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are
expected through Sunday. Although the amount of rain the area
received this evening would suggest patchy fog, MOS guidance does
not generate fog as it keeps winds up with falling dew points.
Therefore will continue to leave fog out of the TAFs with this
issuance but would not be surprised to see some form given the

Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through this
evening for WIZ050.


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