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000
FXUS63 KGRB 061729
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1129 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER WITH QUIET DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS OVER IOWA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD GETTING ADVECTED OVER MINNESOTA IN REGION OF
STRONG WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE WAA REGION LEANS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TODAY...ANTICIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ALONG A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. APPEARS THIS MILDER AIR IS GETTING LIFTED OVER THE COLD
DOME OF SUB ZERO TEMPS FURTHER INLAND. SO BESIDES MORE CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST THIS AM...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER MORE OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING.

THE WARM AIR IS MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK OVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
REGION WILL THEN ALLOW MORE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS POSITIONED SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A MIX VARIETY BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY
WILL BE THE TIMING OF SATURATION. LIKELY TIMING OF THE MIX OF
IP/S/ZR WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD
TURN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR A R/S MIX. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE MIX POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ONLY DUE TO LOW CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE STATE LATER FRIDAY WILL END
THE THE PCPN THREAT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

WILL RUN WITH 3 HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AS STRENGTH OF THE WAA WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THROUGH MARCH 5TH...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT GREEN BAY FOR THE
MONTH OF MARCH WAS 2.6 OR AN INCREDIBLE 23 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S. MONDAY IS A VERY INTRIGUING DAY AS MEX GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFF
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WOULD GET CLOSER
TO 50 AT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP
A FEW DEGREES FOR A STARTING POINT. WE ARE GETTING TO THAT TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB TO 50 DESPITE
DEEP SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY. IT APPEARS THE COOLEST READINGS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE
WINDS OF ICE COVERED LAKE MICHIGAN. IF WE DO REACH THESE READINGS...
WILL BE SOME SUBSTANTIAL SNOW MELT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT
SNOW MELT SHOULD ONLY LAST ONE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COLD SURFACE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS THE AREA...HOWEVER THEY
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH A MVFR DECK. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT RHI/AUW/CWA...WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN WI AS DRIER AIR WILL HOLD ON A
LITTLE LONGER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX
WILL INCREASE FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...THEN SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE SECOND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED TODAY.
A BRIEF RUN AT MELTING SOME OF THE SNOWPACK EXPECTED FOR NEXT
MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. LITTLE
OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS MELT SO RUNOFF WILL BE ONLY
SNOW MELT. SINCE OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING...ONLY POTENTIAL FLOODING AFFECTS WILL BE CLOGGED STORM
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AFTER MONDAY
BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS CLOSER TO NORMAL...WHICH SUPPORTS A
GRADUAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM TO
ADD TO THE RUNOFF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......BERSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH