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000
FXUS63 KGRB 052040
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND
RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE
RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE
AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING
SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP PRODUCE
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER WITH LOWS
OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A VERY NICE
PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED AT
GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS.

THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON THE
MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO
-14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO
EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE
LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADS.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIFTING
SNOW. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM