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000
FXUS63 KGRB 162013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PART OF THE FCST. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE SNOW RETURNS
LATER THIS EVENING THRU THU MORNING. EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NW IA
WITH A WRMFNT EXTENDED EAST/THEN SE INTO CNTRL IL. A CDFNT
STRETCHED FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. INITAL
SURGE OF SNOW NOW OVER FAR NRN WI WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW
LOCATED OVER MN.

THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM NW IA NEWD TO W-CNTRL WI TNGT
WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM TRACK.
THE HEAVY SNOW WL CONT IN PART DUE TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
THANKS TO A 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED AT WI. FARTHER
ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING
AND A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPR JET TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. NRN WI TO REMAIN DIRECTLY UNDER THE MAIN BRUNT OF
THE SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES BY
DAYBREAK. CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE LULL IN THE ACTION FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE BETTER FORCING/LIFT ARRIVES DURING THE
OVRNGT HOURS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THUS...HAVE FOCUSED THE LIKELY
POPS AFTER MIDNGT FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH PCPN TYPE LIKELY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW LATE OVER CNTRL WI. BASED ON
EXPECTED LESS SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MARATHON COUNTY...WL DROP THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY ONLY.

SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI THU MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU EVENING. NRN WI COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THU MORNING WHICH WOULD
BRING TOTALS INTO THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE (HIGHEST VALUES IN VILAS
COUNTY). THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY...BUT CLOUDS WL REMAIN THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S FAR N-CNTRL...TO THE UPR 40S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT COULD GET VERY COLD IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT
IF SKIES COULD CLEAR. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA SO DID NOT GO AS COLD AS IT COULD GET IF SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF SNOW COVERED GROUND
TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP IT COOL FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON AN
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
HOLDS UP THE FRONT THOUGH MONDAY WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UNUSUALLY COLD AND
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH MIGHT JUST PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SO THAT IS WHERE WE ARE LEANING RIGHT NOW. WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINTER STORM TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS NEWD INTO WI
TNGT AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU. HVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS NRN WI WITH THE RHI TAF SITE PRETTY MUCH EITHER IFR OR LIFR
TNGT INTO THU MORNING. CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
LULL IN THE PCPN THRU THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PCPN BEGINS TO PICK
UP LATER TNGT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. LOOK FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO GO
FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THU MORNING...CIGS COULD
BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-
019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KALLAS