Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 300318
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1018 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHEAST WI
OVERNIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE THROUGH EASTERN WI.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WI TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY 12Z.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI...AND SHOULD
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR IN SOME PLACES.
INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER NC/C WI IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN
EASTERN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG...AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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