


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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642 FXUS63 KGRB 110023 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 723 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times from this afternoon through Saturday. Heavy downpours are possible within any thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible on Saturday. - Next round of active weather arrives during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A mid-level shortwave over eastern MN/western WI producing scattered showers and thunderstorms is progged to make eastward progress through this evening before weakening with time overnight. This will allow the scattered showers and thunderstorms to move into portions of central, north-central, and east-central WI this afternoon through this evening. The potential for strong or severe storms is low, but PWATs will be nearing 2 inches leaving the potential for heavy downpours within any thunderstorm. Later this evening, the weakening of the shortwave and loss of daytime heating will cause the coverage to decrease or remain mainly across southern WI. Meanwhile, another shortwave will be on its tail that is progged to phase/overcome the leading shortwave overnight. However, the evolution of this second shortwave has much uncertainty revolving around it. Models are still not in agreement with the timing, placement, or intensity of the shortwave/precip axis for Friday, but there is decent agreement Friday morning will be dry under some cloud cover. Overall, there appears to be a southern trend with the shortwave/precip axis for Friday afternoon and evening, but there are still indications that portions of eastern WI could see some of the main precip swath. If the latter is correct, these areas would be more likely to see higher rainfall totals (1-2+ inches), especially with a juicy atmosphere in place (PWATs around 2 inches). Otherwise, if the more southern solution occurs, much of the forecast area could see much lower rainfall amounts (less than 0.75 inches) for Friday/Friday night. Given the low confidence and much uncertainty, the potential for strong or severe storms has also decreased. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday with the main upper-level trough and leading surface cold front sweeping across the region. The severe potential Saturday afternoon and evening will depend on what happens Friday afternoon/night and how much cloud cover sticks around. Cannot rule it out at the moment given a tongue of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of the cold front, deep layer shear around 35-40 kts, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. SPC has included almost the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, which reflects these features. The remainder of the weekend will be dry, but there are subtle indications of a weak boundary sweeping across the area on Monday, which could bring light rain and a chance of thunderstorms. A higher chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms is shaping up for midweek with an upper-level trough moving across the northern CONUS. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist over central WI (CWA/AUW) through 02z. Showers may lift into RHI before dark, but may struggle to reach the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. VFR conditions, except brief MVFR beneath the heavier showers and storms. After shower activity ends late this evening, expect some clearing for portions of central and north-central WI overnight. The clearing and the evening rainfall could lead to fog late tonight/early Friday morning. Based on the greater coverage of rain this evening, have carried prevailing MVFR VSBY with TEMPO IFR VSBY at CWA and AUW. Kept MVFR VSBY for the fog at RHI. MVFR cigs are anticipated to spread eastward Friday morning with the potential for additional shower activity. Due to uncertainty in where and when this shower activity will occur, retained the PROB30 groups for only CWA/AUW with this TAF issuance. However, latest trends indicate the showers may even stay south of those sites. Does appear that terminals across eastern WI may be stuck in MVFR stratus much of the day with a flow off Lake Michigan. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......JLA