Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

VIGOROUS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
CENTRAL MN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CORE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE...INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LAYER
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO SWING JUST WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ENUF MOISTURE FLUX ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE GRAZES WEST AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE HIGH POPS.

PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES OVER CWA BY THIS EVE...WITH
BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JUNE. CORFIDI
VECTORS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS WI/IL BORDER AREA TONIGHT...AS UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS NRN IL. SRN WI WL BE IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEFORMATION -SHRA AND ISOL T AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE AREA WL BE
ACROSS NRN IL. HENCE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN FAR SRN WI.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...EVEN
BY THE LAKESHORE DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS INITIALLY DESPITE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST MONDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA REMAINS WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS SHOWING MIXED AMOUNTS OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
ECMWF THE MOST CONSERVATIVE. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER ECMWF
CAPE VALUES...BASED ON EXPECTED MOIST LOOK TO VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT PROFILES.

HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEATING AND
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...KEPT CHANCE POPS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

KEPT CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN AT 500
MB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BATTLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME DRY PERIODS
DURING THIS TIME WITH PROXIMITY OF HIGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NOT AS GOOD A CHANCE FOR T FARTHER EAST
BUT AN ISOLD STORM MAY STILL AFFECT ERN TAF SITES. INCREASINGLY
MOIST ELY FLOW AND DEVELOPING PRECIP WL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWERING
CIGS TO MVFR LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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