Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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510
FXUS63 KMKX 151619 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1119 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...

CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING APART LATE THIS MORNING
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
BENEATH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER... WITH DRY AIR ALOFT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT COULD PUT
DOWN A TRACE OF PRECIP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST WI. ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4 THSD FT BY LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE TROUGH.

AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 120 JOULES/KG AND
MOISTURE INCREASES AROUND 5 THSD FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAINLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. A PERIOD OF WEAK UPWARD MOTION EXISTS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

700/850 MB RH IS DRYING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND BEGINS TO DRY SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE.  925 MB LAYER IS
SLOWER TO DRY...WITH DRYING BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM BEGINNING THIS MORNING...WITH THE 850 MB WARMING
TAKING PLACE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER 70S
INLAND SOUTHEAST.  SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS ARE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THIS MAY DEVELOP MORE TOWARDS
EVENING.

AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
925/850 SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO SRN WI.
IN ADDITION SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE TRENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SRN/CNTRL WI. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A LEAD SHORTWAVE
RIDING NEWD IN THE 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVE...WILL HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA.
PRIMARY DYNAMICS/LLJ FORCING REMAIN TO OUR WEST SO OVERALL NOT
ANTICIPATING A GREAT DEAL OF STORM ORGANIZATION IN THIS REGIME.
INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STILL AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT SO COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS PERIOD WITH CENTER OF
UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM SD INTO WRN MN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DCVA FROM APPCH SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN STORM INITIATION. LOCATION
OF BEST DCVA AND ORIENTATION OF 850 JET AXIS TEND TO FAVOR WRN
AND NW WI HOWEVER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE SW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO FROPA. 0-6 SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40
KNOTS WITH 0-1KM SHEAR 20 KNOTS. SEEING CWASP NUMBERS INTO THE
70S. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING FOR SVR POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT FROPA WILL CONTINUE.
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NW
WIND REGIME. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE EXTENDS INTO SRN WI THOUGH
PROGS SUGGEST PCPN CHCS CONFINED MORE TO NORTHERN WI. 12Z ECMWF
SHOWED COOLER TEMPS THAN THAN GFS BUT ALL IN ALL SINGLE DIGIT
CELSIUS 925 TEMPS TAKE HOLD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLDEST 925 TEMPS IN PLACE AROUND 12Z WITH READINGS NEARING 0C.
SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER. FAIRLY BENIGN NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND
WEAKER SURFACE WIND FIELD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS THE HIGH WILL STILL DOMINATE WITH MORE PRONOUNCED 925
TEMP MODIFICATION ON THURSDAY. A HINT OF LIGHT PRECIP ON THE GFS
BUT ECMWF IS SHOWING DRY SCENARIO AND WILL FOLLOW THIS ROUTE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH.

AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 120 JOULES/KG AND
MOISTURE INCREASES AROUND 5 THSD FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR



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