Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 011513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MOST PLACES ARE DRY. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
DRY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE RAINFALL...KEEPING MUCH OF THE RAIN SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL NEED TO SEE
OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE CONSIDERING CHANGES TO THE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS NORTH...TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR/IFR IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD BE VFR ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES IF THE REST OF 12Z GUIDANCE ALSO
COMES IN DRIER.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR TODAY NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE DUE TO WAVE ACTION.
EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

NOT MUCH GOING ON WITH WEAK VORT MAX LIFTING NE FROM W CENTRAL IL
THAT REACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z. ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA IN ZONE OF 850MB-700MB CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED...IF NOT TOTALLY END...THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN BELOW 10K FT WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA
SO EXPECTED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES OR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER
WARRANT KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF.

BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS WITH FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. OMEGA MAX CROSSES AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX
CROSSING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LIKELIES IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO THE STRONGEST OMEGA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. PCPN COMES TO AN END
BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

CLOUDS AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE HELD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CHANNEL OF COOL 925 MB TEMPS
ON NORTH SIDE OF BROAD DOUBLE LOW CIRCULATION SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND MODIFY SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS MAIN 925 MB LOW TRACKS AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY BUT WITH
ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A COUPLE OF SHOTS AT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES COMING TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE 4 CORNERS
REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST US WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON MONDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN...WHICH SHOULD
HELP IT MAINLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE MODELS
KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE DRY SIDE THOUGH THE 01.00Z
GFS/ECMWF DOES PAINT SOME SMALL QPF BETWEEN 18-00Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN
800-700MB IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD HELP PRODUCE THE RAIN
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE NEXT...AND BETTER...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND DRAGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG WITH IT. BEFORE
THE FRONT/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE WEST AND HELP TO USHER WARMER AIR IN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR THE RAIN
SHOWERS...MOISTURE IS DECENT ENOUGH WITH PW AROUND 0.80 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THAT MAY BE OVERDONE
DUE TO GUIDANCE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S. LAPSE RATES/FORCING IS GOOD...SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE US WITH WISCONSIN BEING IN
THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WARMER AIR STARTS TO
SPILL IN ON FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH INCHES TOWARD THE COAST
AND THE RIDGE SETS UP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH WITH THAT FEATURE AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE LINE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS REMAINS VERY FLUID...THOUGH
MAJORITY OF HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SAG SOUTH/DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CROSSES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE SOUTH HALF. SHOWERS COME TO
AND END BY 06Z WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS CURRENT FORECAST WINDS KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS UP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MID-
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH


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