Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 071524
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1024 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH MOSTLY SKC. LITTLE OR NO CU
EXPECTED. FLOW IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. CU RULE AND BUFKIT SUGGEST
850 TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF
THE CU AT BAY. LOOKING AT A 02-11Z AS THE GENERAL WINDOW FOR
STORMS....STARTING IN THE WEST AT 02Z AND WRAPPING UP AT THE 11Z
TIME IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UPPER JET WILL BE A FACTOR SO STORMS
EXPECTED TO SURVIVE TO THE EAST DESPITE GETTING INTO THE
DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME. ANY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW UPSTAIRS. SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER
EAST INTO SC WI SO KMSN MORE VULNERABLE TO A SVR STORM THAN THE
EASTERN TAF SITES.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WINDS WEAKEN WITH DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP...LINGERING UNTIL MID MORNING.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY WITH A LACK OF
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DURING THIS TIME. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
LINGER TODAY...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODELS THEN HAVE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF UP TO AROUND
1000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY 00Z TUESDAY...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30
TO 40 KNOT RANGE AS WELL.

WRF/ARW MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH WRF/NMM NOT NEARLY AS STRONG. SPC SLIGHT RISK
CLIPS SAUK AND PORTIONS OF NEIGHBORING COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR EXPECTED. THUS...KEPT HIGHER END POPS FOR TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TUE...AND EVEN
LESS THAN THAT WED. FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE TOO...SO KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW END. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS ARE NOW IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW
AND MID LEVEL ADVECTION OF WARM AIR AND THETA-E...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RECOVERING TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF.
BUMPED POPS UP SOME AS A RESULT...BUT WAS HESITANT TO GO MUCH
HIGHER BECAUSE OF RECENT MODEL VARIABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. POPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE THOUGH IF MODELS
STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION.

KEPT SOME POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE TO
MOVE THROUGH AT SOME POINT. NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING
AMONG MODELS THOUGH...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN A PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS
AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW LYING AREAS...AND
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS...GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING. MVFR VISIBILITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.