Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151726
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1226 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Stratus field turning more cellular in
nature over western and central CWA while sct-bkn cumulus continue
to redevelop in most areas away from the lakeshore. Cirrus blowoff
may slow cumulus thinning over western CWA, but expect cumulus to
eventually turn sct by late afternoon and eve.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 933 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017)

UPDATE...Widespread stratus over western and northern CWA should
gradually thin with slowly rising cigs. Due to lighter low level
flow, clouds will stick around into the afternoon. Expect broken
ceilings to linger into the afternoon many locations due to
lingering low level moisture and colder temps aloft. Lingering
clouds may result in slightly cooler maximum temperatures today,
especially in the west.

MARINE...Northeast winds are expected for much of the day as weak
high pressure passes across the northern Great Lakes. Wind gusts
are expected to remain below 20 knots. Next period of strongest
winds will be Wednesday night into Thursday as deepening low
pressure moves across Wisconsin toward Lake Superior.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 645 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Area of low stratus clouds should linger over portions of the area
this morning, perhaps until as late as midday. It is a rather thin
layer, so it may mix out sooner. Ceilings around or below
alternate minimums are expected with the low stratus.

The fog appears to be rather patchy in nature, with area web
cameras showing little fog so far this morning. There should be
some fog in low lying areas, dissipating by middle morning.

Quiet weather is expected today into this evening, with high
pressure in the region. High clouds should move into the area
this morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon. Diurnal
cumulus clouds should develop by the afternoon. Light northeast
winds are expected today into tonight, becoming east inland
tonight. They should become southeast on Wednesday.

More low clouds and some fog may develop later tonight, with
visibilities down to near alternate minimums. Ceilings should
remain MVFR category. The fog should remain patchy in nature once
again.

Wood

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 316 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017)

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Area of low stratus clouds should continue to slide southward into
the area early this morning. More low stratus should also develop
elsewhere across the area. Some fog should also develop over the
area early this morning, though it may be more patchy in nature
with the low stratus development. At this time, not anticipating
any Dense Fog Advisories, with the uncertainty with how widespread
any fog will be. Will watch web cameras and observations into
this morning with the fog.

The fog should dissipate by middle morning with some daytime
heating. The low stratus may take a little longer to erode and/or
mix ceilings upward, perhaps by midday at the latest. Should see
this result in scattered to broken cumulus in the afternoon. A
nice day is expected, with weak high pressure moving across the
region. Highs should be near seasonal normals, and a bit cooler
with onshore winds near Lake Michigan.

Models are showing modest warm air advection developing by later
tonight in the area. However, this will battle fairly dry air over
the area. The NAM is the only synoptic model bringing QPF into the
western counties by 12Z Wednesday. Given the absence of a good
push of moisture into the area, think the NAM may be overdone.
For now, kept low PoPs in the far southwestern counties later
tonight. Most of the night should be dry. May see some light fog
develop again, though increasing clouds should limit its areal
extent.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Models have slowed some more with the arrival of deeper moisture
on Wednesday, with high pressure over the Great Lakes blocking
the way. Did keep some lower end precip chances, but think that it
will be dry much of the day. Nudged temperatures up a bit with
the likely slower arrival of widespread precip.

Showers and storms are likely Wednesday evening and overnight as
the deeper moisture arrives. GFS and NAM precipitable water
values are up around 2 inches, so could see some locally heavy
rainfall.

The surface low and associated front are now expected to be
just entering the forecast area at daybreak Thursday. Have
increased precip chances as a result of the slower progression of
the system. Should see activity winding down late morning into
the afternoon.

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence is medium:

High pressure Friday should result in a very pleasant day across
southern Wisconsin. Models are in better agreement with the
shortwave Saturday, so confidence in increasing in shower/storm
chances. High pressure is expected to return Sunday, bringing
another pleasant day to the area.

High pressure will shift to the east Monday, with a weak
shortwave forecast to move through by later day. Could see some
precip with this wave per the GFS, though the ECMWF and Canadian
are dry and keep the precip to the west. Something to keep an eye
on for those interested in viewing the eclipse.

Near normal temps Fri/Sat are expected to warm up a couple degrees
for Sun/Mon.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Should see low stratus clouds continue to slide southward into the
area early this morning. More low stratus should develop elsewhere
as well. Some fog is expected to develop as well, which may be
more patchy given the low stratus expected. Ceilings and
visibilities may drop to around or below alternate minimums early
this morning. Dense fog may occur, though it may be in mainly low
lying areas.

The fog should dissipate by middle morning, with ceilings taking
perhaps until midday to mix upward to VFR category. These
scattered to broken cumulus clouds may linger through the
afternoon. Light winds will become northeast this morning, then
east to northeast tonight. Should see some middle level clouds
move into the area tonight from the west. Some light fog may form,
though not confident in how widespread it will become.

MARINE...

May see some fog development early this morning. It should
dissipate by the middle morning hours. Light fog is possible later
tonight, but should be limited in areal coverage.

Light winds will become northeast today and linger tonight. Waves
will be low during this time. Southeast winds are expected
Wednesday, with winds veering south Wednesday night and west by
later on Thursday. Some gusts to 20 knots are possible Wednesday
into Thursday. Waves should remain relatively low, with the
highest toward the open waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...MBK


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