Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020822
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SEWD ALONG THE MO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TNT WITH MO SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER SRN WI.
ALTHOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH THE SMOKE
ALOFT SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN WI WILL BECOME ORIENTED W-E ACROSS SRN
WI TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE TNT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH
GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS WI THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES
REGION WITH BROAD/ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IN NRN WI. SO FOCUS FOR
PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE WINDS PROGGD TO TURN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST INLAND WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT PREVAILING IN THE EAST.
925 TEMPS BOUNCE BACK AND RISE DEEPER INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS SO
EXPECT SFC TEMPS RISING DEEPER INTO THE 70S.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING TO
AROUND 20C OR A SMIDGE HIGHER. GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS FURTHER NORTH BUT WILL CARRY A SMALL POP IN OUR
FAR NORTH. TAKING A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME CAPE BUILDUP IN THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. LOOKS TOO DRY AND STABLE IN THE SOUTH WITH NO
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SHORTWAVE AXIS APPROACHES BUT LARGELY ELONGATED AND NOT MUCH
JET ACTION. WEAKENS FURTHER AS IS CROSSES SRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH 850 JET AXIS
STILL WELL WEST IN THE PLAINS. 925 TEMPS WARM A BIT FURTHER
SUGGESTING MORE 80S LIKELY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ECMWF HAS STABILIZED AND HAS CONVERGED WITH THE GEM/GFS ON A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO ADVANCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS. DECENT CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT STAYING DRY THOUGH SUPERBLEND SLIGHTS TOUCH OUR FAR
WEST...BUT WE MAY EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO GO DRY CWA WIDE FOR THIS
PERIOD. BULK OF CWA LOOKS QUIET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SO FOR NOW JUST
SOME SLIGHTS IN THE FAR WEST PER SUPERBLEND. BETTER FORCING
FACTORS CONGEAL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTING NOW THAT THE SE MAY STAY DRY UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. SO HAVE SPLIT MONDAY GRIDS TO REFLECT SOME SLOWER EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF POPS. THE GEM IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION LINGERING
PRECIP ALL DAY TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH
MORNING PRECIP. THE GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY TUESDAY BUT WILL LEAN
WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH HANGS ONTO SOME POPS FOR
TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGING SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD
SO PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...REMOVED THE SMALL
SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN LOW
LYING AREAS INCLUDING 2-5SM BR AT KMSN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER SRN WI. MORE GROUND FOG IN LOW
LYING AREAS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TNT. KMSN...KUES AND KENW MAY
SEE LIGHT FOG OF 3-5SM BR LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



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