Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1040 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN BECOME A RETROGRADING 500 MB LOW
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA.

AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S INLAND...WITH ONSHORE
WINDS KEEPING COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
LIGHT GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT KENOSHA LATER
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PCPN HAS SLOWLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE NW CWA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE 925-850 MB FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEAKENS. ONLY
A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA WITH ANOTHER PORTION BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE SW HALF OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE TO THE IA/MO BORDER BY 12Z FRI. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR PCPN OTHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. THE MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...THUS SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE AND LOWER 70S OVER FAR ERN WI. MO CLEAR TO PTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TNT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL MILD TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
VERY QUIET REGIME PERSISTS THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAFFLES AROUND IA/MN BEFORE TRENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND STABLE.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WILL LEAN ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GEM AND ECMWF IN BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANY VORT ACTION WELL NORTH. THE
GFS BRINGS A STRONGER WAVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FRONTAL BAND AND SHRA. WILL GO WITH THE QUIET ALLBLEND POPS
WHICH FAVORS THE GEM/ECMWF AND COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
ALL IN ALL THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO STILL DOMINATE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
LINGERS SO YET ANOTHER DRY DAY LIKELY WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND
INFLUENCE OF LLJ STAYING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST WITH MODELS SHOWING BULK OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO CANADA. GFS KEEPS
PRECIP TO OUR WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRUSHES THE WRN CWA. THERE IS
SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT THE BLENDED POPS ALONE FOR NOW BUT
SHOULD FUTURE RUNS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO POP REDUCTIONS MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GROUND FOG IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AREAS FOR TNT BUT
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AND MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



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