Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A strong west/southwest upper jet across Wisconsin becomes a little
more southwest as an upper trough begins to dig across the northern
and central plains. Southern Wisconsin is in the entrance region of
the 120 knot 250 mb jet by sunrise Thursday. Some weak upper level
divergence and 700mb upward motion tonight.  700 mb RH increases
mainly far southeast just after midnight, before drying again.

Surface winds do become north, but think the slight chance of
showers would be mid level based, but even those should be mainly

Expect increasing high/mid clouds today and especially tonight.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A wave will move through early Thursday, but with very little
moisture to work with, so left the forecast dry. High pressure
will be building in through the day Thursday as the wave exits,
with the high remaining in the region through Saturday.

Temperatures will be a couple/few degrees below normal for
Thursday and Friday behind the departing low, warming back to
around normal Saturday.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Low pressure is progged to move through Sunday. It currently looks
like the best forcing will remain to the north of the forecast
area, so expecting the dry weather to continue. High pressure will
follow the departing low for Monday.

A stronger low will develop to the west on Tuesday, with deeper
moisture moving in ahead of the low by later in the day. Certainly
some differences between the ECMWF and GFS this far out, but
enough agreement at this point for some chance pops.

Temps will be near to a couple degrees above normal for the first
couple days of next week.



Isolated MVFR/IFR in low areas trough sunrise mainly in low areas
and river valleys. otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Increasing moisture will bring high and then mid-level clouds today
and especially tonight.



High pressure today will weaken.  light winds becoming more
east/north tonight. Will still be looking at winds/wave heights
increasing late tonight then approaching or reaching Small Craft
Advisory levels Thursday/Thursday night as north winds increase with
the tightening gradient, between low pressure lifting up the Ohio
River Valley, and broad high pressure building in from the Plains.


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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