Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 181709 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.UPDATE...

A NICE DAY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE EAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKE. AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION IS TOO DRY...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...FOR ANY SHOWER MENTION IN FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET...DEVELOPING AGAIN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN SITES...BECOMING
SOUTH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN WI INTO SRN IA. THIS MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER IA AND FAR SW WI.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS EXPECTED. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN
PRIOR DAYS BUT OVERALL STILL LOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. SFC TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS WELL SO THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW. A LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
TNT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL HOLD STRONG OVER SOUTHERN WI
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF IS IN THE LOWEST 5000
FEET...SO WE CAN EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SATURDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON A LAKE BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY...WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
BRING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHWEST WI. OF COURSE...THERE
WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...SO ONLY MENTIONED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...USHERING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THIS TIME. A STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG...LOOKS LIKE TUE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OVERHEAD.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WI ON WED FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. SCATTERED FAIR WX CUMULUS EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING


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