Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010203 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED WITH PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS MAINLY NORTHEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF WAUKESHA AND THE DELLS.

SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AS LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS SCATTERED CU WILL BE MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOWERING
DEW POINTS. SHORT TERM MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT FOG IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND...WITH LAKE BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS IN DRY...SUBSIDENT REGION BETWEEN CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAINING TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF STATE ALONG PERIPHERY OF BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. COLDEST AIR AT 925-850 MB BEHIND THE EASTERN
CANADIAN LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A COOL LOBE
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NAM ABOUT 2 DEGREES C
COLDER THAN GFS AND ECMWF AT 925 MB THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS
BLEND LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED...WHILE
ACCOUNTING FOR COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.


THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

00Z ECMWF IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS...BRACKETING WISCONSIN BETWEEN
ONE SHORT WAVE TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND A
SECOND WAVE TO THE SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IL. AS A RESULT SRN WISCONSIN
REMAINS UNDER THE WESTERN END OF THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
RISING 925 MB TEMPERATURES ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING HIGHS
TO WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS COOLER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

THE MID-RANGE MODELS KEEP THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRY WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING THE EASTERN THIRD A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

FASTER ECMWF BRINGS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS...AND 6
HOURS SOONER THAN THE CANADIAN GEMNH. SIMILAR TIMING TO END OF
PCPN...WITH ECMWF CLEARING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
..WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT/TROUGH ON THE
GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. BLENDED
SOLUTION KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AREA OF BROKEN VFR CATEGORY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS MAY LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE AT THE EASTERN SITES.
WINDS AT MADISON WILL REMAIN NORTH.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM


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