Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 072019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF WI LATE LAST
NIGHT. AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPE HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND ALSO FROM IA INTO SRN MN WITH BETTER
RETURN FLOW THERE. STORMS FIRING FROM NW WI INTO EC MN. THESE ARE
TRENDING ESE THOUGH AIRMASS MORE STABLE IN SRN WI. LATEST HRRR
SHOWS AXIS OF ONGOING ACTIVITY DROPPING INTO SW WI AS THE EVENING
GOES ON WITH STRONGER CELLS STAYING JUST NW OR W OF CWA WITH
WEAKER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA SPREADING INTO SRN WI. HOWEVER VERY
IMPRESSIVE JET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PROGRESS. 12Z NAM SHOWS A NEARLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE EVOLVING
WITH MASSIVE DIVERGENCE. SO FAVORABLE UPPER JET STREAM WILL
CERTAINLY BE A FACTOR. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE SOME
RECOVERY IN MOISTURE WITH RENEWED 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 JET
ARRIVING TOWARDS 06Z. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PROGGD TO AFFECT
SRN WI IN THE 02-11Z TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR 50 KNOTS
PLUS BY 06Z. SSEO SHOWS BETTER UPDRAFT HELICITY FURTHER WEST THEN
DECREASING INTO THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A MASSIVE
AMOUNT OF CAPE COMING INTO PLAY BUT THERE WILL BE A RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT THE BEST OVERLAP OF
FORCING/THERMODYNAMICS TO BE IN SC WI CLOSER TO SWODY1 AREA OF
CONCERN. THE LATEST HRRR IS CERTAINLY A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN THE
12Z NMM AND 12Z ARW. ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY EXIT SE WI
AROUND 12Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST. SO THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOME PRETTY DECENT LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MORE SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED IN THE NE CWA. 925 TEMPS
DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST FRONT. SO HIGHS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT
AND WED AM. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLD TO SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NT OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FOR WED WITH HEIGHT RISES. THERE
WILL REMAIN ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THEN PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU AM. SLY WINDS TO THEN DEVELOP THU
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
BUT PLEASANT. PWS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SLY WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A W-E STATIONARY FRONT OVER SRN WI OR NEARBY ON SOME
OF THE MODELS. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ON THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF A CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH.
WENT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM MN/IA. LOOKING AT A 02-11Z AS THE
GENERAL WINDOW FOR STORMS...STARTING IN THE WEST AT 02-04Z AND
WRAPPING UP AT THE 11Z TIME IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UPPER JET WILL BE
A FACTOR SO STORMS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE TO THE EAST DESPITE GETTING
INTO THE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME. ANY LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW UPSTAIRS. SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO SC WI SO KMSN MORE VULNERABLE TO A SVR STORM THAN THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ON TUESDAY SO CHCY POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING


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