Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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051
FXUS63 KMKX 200326
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for tnt-Mon.


&&

.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from noon on
Mon until 6 pm on Tue. Breezy swly winds will develop and turn
nwly with the passage of a cold front for Tue aft. Waves will
build to 3 to 5 feet for Mon nt.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 543 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017)

UPDATE...A warm advection pattern on swly winds will develop
tonight and last into Monday evening as strong high pressure
moves ewd across the se USA and strong low pressure moves ewd
across srn Canada. Gusty winds are expected Mon afternoon into Mon
night. Temps tnt will drop little with highs approaching 50F on
Mon.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tonight through Monday night.
A swly 60 kt LLJ will develop for Mon evening and overnight and
may require a forecast of LLWS if the sfc winds lessen enough.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 233 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...High Forecast Confidence

Filtered sunshine is occurring across most of the region this
afternoon, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around the
freezing mark. Variable high clouds will remain in place through
most of tonight, with temperatures only falling a few degrees into
the upper 20s or low 30s. Surface winds will become more
southwesterly tonight, remaining breezing through the overnight
hours.

Monday looks to be a very pleasant day across the region, with
southwesterly breezes helping to boost temperatures well into the
40s, with a few spots across southwestern Wisconsin perhaps
touching 50 degrees.

LONG TERM...Monday Night through next Saturday...Medium to High
Confidence

A relatively strong but generally dry cold front will pass
through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will
be a blustery day, with gusts between 25 and 30 MPH common.
Temperatures will fall into the upper teens and low 20s Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as high pressure settles across the
Central Plains. Wednesday, Thanksgiving Day and Friday look to be
rather nice, with dry weather looking likely with seasonable
temperatures.

The next system of consequence looks to move into the region
Friday night into next weekend, as an upper level trough dives
southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. This will be the
region`s next good chance for precipitation, though at this time
it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will remain to our
north and east. Cooler temperatures look probable for next weekend
behind this system, with highs back in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours, with just high
clouds passing through the area. Winds will become southwesterly
this evening/tonight, continuing into Monday.

MARINE...

Winds will become southwesterly tonight, with speeds increasing
heading into the day on Monday. Winds will then become
northwesterly Tuesday morning behind a cold front. A Small Craft
Advisory will be in effect from mid day Monday through at least
Tuesday evening. Winds will approach gales Monday night into
Tuesday, and it is possible that the Small Craft Advisory may
eventually need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning.

Winds should finally start to subside by Wednesday morning.
Another storm system should then approach the area by next
weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...Boxell



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