Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 230239
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...

WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
AND WINDS WERE DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ARE
A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
THOSE OUT OF THE ADVISORY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST OF THE THE STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED.

&&

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES THAT WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE AFTER WINDS EASE.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CLOUDS SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER EASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CHILLY 925MB
TEMPS AROUND 6C TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MODERATE INVERSION
THOUGH. THIS WILL DROP LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WI SO NO CHANGE IN FROST ADVISORY
HEADLINE.

SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALREADY
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. THE WARM AIR AND
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND
WARMING 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 11C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
INLAND FROM THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE AND
ESPECIALLY MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. ONCE AGAIN... AN EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT WILL KEEP LAKESHORE COUNTIES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MID-UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF
CLOSED 500 MB LOW THAT REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. POCKET OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH FOCUSED
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA...BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYERS ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE 5K FT TO
10K FT RANGE NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE PCPN CAN REACH THE GROUND.
WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE NORTH AFTER 06Z AND SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH. TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND AND AROUND 40 ALONG
THE LAKE WITH COOL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

CONTINUING PCPN CHANCES TIED CLOSELY TO FORCING ALONG 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WHICH MODELS
VARY ON IN TERMS OF LOCATION. MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING SIGNALS ARE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY...SAGGING
TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS
THAT HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH HALF AND CHANCE IN THE NORTH
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DRY DAY IN THE SOUTH. BLENDED
SOLUTION HAS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE ALONG THE LAKE WITH LOW TO MID
60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NAM AND CANADIAN GEM ARE SLOWER AS THEY HOLD MORE OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION LONGER WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHEAR OUT OPEN WAVE MOVING
INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW AS IT CROSSES STATE MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS HAS
MORE OF AN IMPACT ON ENDING THE PRECIPITATION SO BLENDED SOLUTION OF
LIKELY POPS DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY IS SUPPORTED.

SLOWLY STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL PULL THE INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE CWA CREATING A
STRONG GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPERATURES...COOLING LOWS IN THE FAR NORTH
AND RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JUST INLAND AND SOUTH OF THE COOLER READINGS...JUMPING UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SW CWA. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HOLDS
FOR HIGHS MONDAY....WITH MID 50S FAR NORTH...RISING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S CENTRAL AND UPPER 60S SOUTH INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

A CONSENSUS BLEND PULLS PCPN OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH MID-
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AIR INTO THE
REGION. RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION IS BRIEF AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF NEXT CLOSED 500 MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS
PCPN CHANCES BACK TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES ALONG WI/IL BORDER WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...THOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THIS TRACK
KEEPS BETTER OVERALL INSTABILITY SOUTH OF STATE BUT DYNAMICS AND
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WORTHY OF A MENTION OF THUNDER.

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WINDS BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CIGS LIFTED TO VFR AND CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. HIGH WAVES THAT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
SUBSIDE AFTER WINDS EASE. THUS END TIMES FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOK ON TARGET.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-063>066-068>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



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