Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1136 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.UPDATE...Higher pops were put in place especially across the
northern cwa to account for more showers moving through.



.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...A cold front will work through southern WI
this afternoon with an accompanying wind shift to the northwest.
The IFR/LIFR cigs and remaining fog should get whisked away with
the lingering concern being a surge of cold advection related MVFR
cigs. Should see more breaks in the clouds for Thursday as a
ridge of high pressure edges closer and scours out some of the low
level RH.



.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 927 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017)

UPDATE...Some lower visibilities forming within lighter wind
regime of trough axis ahead of primary cold front/wind shift. As
winds ramp up from the northwest these vsbys will be whisked away.
A few more narrow bands of showers this morning per 88-d trends.
Dry slot headed towards srn WI from ern IA with cold advection
stratus driving southeast from srn MN.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory in good shape. South/southwest
winds easing with trough axis approaching. After passage of cold
front still expecting northwest winds to ramp up and become gusty.
Higher waves will shift towards open waters as the offshore
component becomes more prevalent.


PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 219 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017)


Today...Forecast confidence is high...

A strong mid level short wave pushing through, coupled with a
sharp surface trough/cold front will bring rain to the area this
morning. As the front approaches, the models are all in pretty
tight agreement that we`ll see the rain expand quickly between
about 5am-9am this morning, especially across the southeast. It
will then quickly push off to the east, likely exiting out over
Lake Michigan by 11am-noon...or a bit sooner. Winds will shift
around to the west northwest by early afternoon and become rather
breezy/gusty. We could a little dry slot clearing southwest of
Madison this afternoon. The highs for today will mostly occur by
late morning, with cold air advection in the wake of the cold
front pushing temps down in the afternoon, especially northwest of

Tonight...Forecast confidence is high...

We`ll be in the pressure gradient between the departing trough and
the approaching high from the northwest. So look for northwest
winds to remain elevated overnight. Temps will fall into the 20s
by sunrise. Although it will be dry, the cold air advection will
bring a surge of clouds south across the area.


Thursday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring sunshine back to southern Wisconsin on
Thursday. Temps will be back down to below normal with a cooler
airmass in the wake of the departed low pressure system. Breezy
winds in the morning will ease for the afternoon with the high
moving overhead.

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Confidence is high that there will be rain Friday into Saturday as
deepening low pressure moves through the area. The precip Friday
may hold off until the afternoon most places, with the best
chance for rain coming Friday evening into early Saturday

There remains some uncertainty with the exact track of the
low. The farther north GFS is fairly mild Friday night, even
bringing some instability up into southern Wisconsin. Went a bit
south of and cooler than the GFS for now, giving a nod to the
ECMWF and Canadian solutions.

It looks breezy Saturday, but given models have been trending
farther east with the low reaching peak strength, the pressure
gradient is a bit less over southern Wisconsin. Gusts of 30-40 mph
are possible per the GFS, but Wind Advisory conditions are
seeming less likely overall.

Sunday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will be in place for much of the time early next
week. Models do bring a wave through Monday night or early
Tuesday, but went with a dry forecast due to limited available

Temps are expected to be chilly Sunday behind the departing low,
warming back to around normal Monday.


A strong cold front pushing through the area this morning will
bring MVFR then IFR CIGS to the TAF sites through mid-day. Showers
will also increase in coverage by sunrise, then diminish from west
to east by mid to late morning. CIGS will lift to MVFR levels
this afternoon, then likely remain there through tonight as colder
air spills into the area. The rain should be out of the area, out
over Lake Michigan, by noon, with dry conditions expected
thereafter. Look for southerly winds this morning to veer west
northwest in the wake of the front later this morning and early
afternoon. Winds will be breezy/gusty through tonight.


A small craft advisory is in effect through noon on Thursday.
Gusty southerly winds this morning will shift to the west
northwest by early afternoon as a strong cold front pushes through
the area. The northwest winds will remain elevated through the
morning on Thursday. A few gale force gusts are possible this

Winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels
again later Thursday night into next weekend. Gale force winds are
possible Saturday afternoon and night.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.


Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...DDV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.