Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 042039
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WAA CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS WITH
SOME HIGHER BASED AC.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WITH SURFACE HIGH WELL TO THE EAST...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
WILL BE UNDERWAY. 925 TEMPS NUDGE UPWARDS THROUGH THE TEENS
CELSIUS. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A LITTLE MORE MOIST SOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS DRY AND THE GFS LOOKS TOO MOIST. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE
TREKKING ESE FROM IOWA. WITH THE NAM HAVING THE DRIER LOOK THE
BUFKIT SOUNDING IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE
CAPE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH. ENOUGH THOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER
ESPECIALLY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY AIDING IN
FORCING...THOUGH EVENTUAL TRACK WILL BE KEY ON WHERE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SETS UP. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE NAM TREND WETTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FOR SAT NT WITH THE NAM DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO IA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE IL BORDER. ONLY MINOR SFC OR
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BUT A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE THE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE TRACK WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY AS A 576 DM THICKNESS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA AND SLIGHT RISK IS
OUTLOOKED OVER THE AREA. A 40 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SWLY SFC WINDS VEERING TO
WSWLY ALOFT. THUS 0-2 KM SRH WILL RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE
2000 J/KG DURING THE EVENING WHEN TSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SO EXPECT
MULTICELLULAR STORMS BUT WITH A SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MON NT INTO TUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR WED-THU BUT BUILD TO A RIDGE BY
FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE OHIO VALLEY AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN BEGIN A
WEAK SOUTH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY IFR FOG IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LOOK GOOD FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
KMSN DURG THE AFTN.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING



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