Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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376
FXUS63 KMKX 131631 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1031 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...

The going forecast looks on track at this time. Do not anticipate
much change from the current forecast for the timing and amounts
of snow for Sunday night into Tuesday across the area. Still looks
to impact the Monday morning and evening commutes, and possibly
the Tuesday morning commute in eastern portions of the area. Not
sure about the need for any winter weather headlines at this
time, but will continue to evaluate.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...

The Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire at 10 AM CST for
ares south of North Point Lighthouse, as waves have fallen below 4
feet. Any freezing spray should be ending as well. Northwest winds
will continue to gradually weaken into this afternoon.

Another period of brisk winds and high waves are possible Sunday
night into Monday morning, as low pressure moves through the
region. Gusty south winds and high waves are possible late Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning, as the low approaches. A Small
Craft Advisory may be needed.

Gusty west to northwest winds are possible later Monday afternoon
into Tuesday morning, as the low departs the region. Some
freezing spray is possible Tuesday as well. Another Small Craft
Advisory may be needed.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 519 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018)

UPDATE...The forecast of mostly clear skies and cold conditions
is on track for today and tonight. Then, powdery snow for Sun nt-
Mon.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for
today through Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 330 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

Cold advection will continue through the morning before weakening
as a shortwave trough moves across the nrn Great Lakes. Wind chill
temps of -10F to -19F this morning. A 1040 mb sfc ridge will then
gradually move into srn WI for late this evening into the
overnight. Full sunshine within an arctic airmass and 925 mb temps
around -18C will yield high temps of 9-14F today. Below zero
temps are expected away from Lake MI tnt but with lighter winds
through the night.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...Medium to High
Forecast still on track for a prolonged snow event for the area.
After a dry morning Sunday the progs continue to show qpf
spreading into the area with increasing waa and dcva ahead of the
approaching trough. The snow will become widespread Sunday evening
and persist into Monday. Have pops on the high side as consensus
and consistency has been in place from the models. Looking at an
overall 2-4 inch system with some slightly higher amounts in parts
of the east where a low level trough swings through Monday night
and potentially into Tuesday. However some decrease is expected
Monday afternoon especially in portions of the southern and
western cwa. With the colder temps expecting ratios to be on the
higher side. Looks like greatest commute impact would be Monday
morning so an advisory may be needed.

Wednesday through Friday - Confidence...Medium
A warming trend then takes hold as a westerly flow brings an
uptick in the 925/850 thermal pattern. Coldest day will be
Wednesday as the waa just starts up then and each day should get
progressively warmer as the milder air flow persists on the
west/southwest winds. We will most likely have a fresh snow cover
in place so that will have a say on how the temps respond to the
overall modifying airmass.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for
today through Sunday morning.

MARINE...The brisk northwest winds and high waves will continue
to weaken through the morning. The Small Craft Advisory will
expire at 6 AM north of North Point Lighthouse and 10 AM south of
North Point Lighthouse. Freezing spray is expected this morning.

Increasing south winds and building waves Sun-Sun nt. may require
a Small Craft Advisory. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely
be needed Monday afternoon into Tuesday for brisk northwest winds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wood
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Collar



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