Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 012135
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - COMING SHORTLY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CLOSED 500 MILLIBAR LOW ACROSS IOWA PROGGD TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
PERIOD AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 700 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW SHIFTS FROM WC WI INTO NE
WI. THE 850 LOW BROADENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN AND ERN WI TUESDAY
NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THERE IS A SECONDARY VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED QPF LATE
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE 850
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP. ATTM...THE GFS IS THE WARMEST
SOLUTION WITH ZERO C ISOTHERM ALL THE WAY TO THE DELLS WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW -3 OR -4C. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS ALSO
PROGGD TO MOISTEN BACK UP AGAIN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SO EXPECT
ANY LINGERING MIX OR RAIN WITH THE LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO SWITCH BACK TO SNOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF WI. HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
GOING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW USED THE SUPERBLEND
QPF WHICH GENERATED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...UNDER AN INCH. IF
NEXT RUN OR TWO MAINTAINS SOME OF THESE HIGHER QPF NUMBERS MAY
NEED TO NUDGE SNOW AMOUNTS AND POPS A BIT HIGHER.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
BEING DISPLACED EAST OF WI. SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE PROGS WITH SPOTTY
QPF MAINLY IN WRN OR NRN WI. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWED QPF ACRS SRN WI.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING WAVE ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A
BIT MORE QPF ONCE AGAIN...JUST LIKE WITH THE PRIOR WEAKER SYSTEM.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A RENEWED SURGE OF WAA IS PROGGD WITH THE WESTERLY 850 FLOW
BRINGING IN MILDER TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY
DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO PUSH EAST FROM THE WEST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. THE THERMAL RIDGE
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING SOME 925/850
TEMPS WELL ABV 0C. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON COLD FROPA WITH THE
12Z GFS A BIT QUICKER. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM TIED TO 850
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF CAA WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIRMASS
STILL BACK ACRS MN. MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHSN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ067-
     068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ056-057-062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WIZ063-064.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WIZ051-052-058-059.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR


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