Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD



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