Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS WI THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. STRONG DAVA WILL THEN HELP
ERODE A STRATUS DECK INTO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD THEN CLIMB RAPIDLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND WOULD
LIKELY BE TOWARD CENTRAL WI AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. CLEARING THEN EXPECTED FOR TNT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT LATE WITH LIGHT SWLY WINDS AT THE SFC. MILD LOW TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
AREA FOR A SHORT TIME. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY
...EVEN ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH THE WINDS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. OVERALL...THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS
SHIFTED TO AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. DID KEEP
SOME POPS SATURDAY MORNING PER THE SLOWER ECMWF...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DRIER AIR
ALSO ARRIVES WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY...CLIMBING
BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



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