Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240826
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
THE MCS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR A VERY NICE START TO THE DAY WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT WITH SOME BLOW-OFF CIRRUS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON FROM CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THAT FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP SOUTH
OF WISCONSIN.  CONVECTION SHOULD REGENERATE ACROSS IOWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT COULD PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER ABOUT 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON THE MCS WHICH EVERY MODEL DEPICTS...BUT
THE SOLUTIONS COVER A LARGE SPECTRUM.  IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE QPF AND CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM TAKES THE MCS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERN TREND WHILE THE GFS
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND EC.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS HAVE A NORTHWARD BIAS ON QPF IN
THESE SCENARIOS AND I FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT WE CAN TOSS OUT THE NAM.
I WOULD EXPECT THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL HELP SHARPEN...AND EVEN
SUPPRESS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS WOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE
NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT ROUND.  WILL TRY TO KEEP THE BEST
POPS/QPF TIED MUCH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAN THE H8 WARM
FRONT WHICH IS FAVORED BY THE SOME OF THE MODELS.  SPC EDGED THE
SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS A NOTCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NEW
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE HUGE VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO THIS
EVENT...I CAN/T FIND FAULT IN THAT.  BUT AGAIN...WE COULD BE MISSED
ALMOST ENTIRELY IF THINGS SET UP JUST A FEW MILES SOUTH.  IT/S
ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTED RIGHT AT
YOU WITH STRONG WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECT THE BULK OF THE HEAVY WEATHER TO BE SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN...I/LL STILL CARRY CHANCY POPS NORTH OF THE MAIN MCS IN
CASE WE SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS CLOSER TO THE H8
BOUNDARY.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS IF A WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH AS A COUPLE MODELS ARE INDICATING. BY AFTERNOON...MAY SEE
SMALLER CHANCES NEAR THE LAKE AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE EAST.

TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MOST
NOTICEABLY NEAR THE LAKE.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST LATER FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL LOOKS DRY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF AVERAGE
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A COUPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS...SO POPS ARE
SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH LATEST
ECMWF IS A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID
EVENING TODAY. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFF WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITHIN A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



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