Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260929
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is high.

Low clouds caused by some warm air advection will gradually erode
from west to east today. The lakeshore area could see breaks in the
clouds throughout the day since there is a little more mixing going
on. Around the time the low clouds move out, mid level clouds are
expected to spread into south central WI this afternoon with a weak
shortwave trough. Sunshine will be hard to come by.

Winds will generally be up to 10 mph out of the south, and highs
will rise into the mid 40s most places. This is a little above
normal for late November. It`s shaping up to be a nice day to be
outside.

Skies should clear for a period of time tonight before high clouds
begin streaming in. If we can clear long enough, expect some patchy
fog to develop.

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... Forecast confidence is high.

A shortwave trough moves moves over the central Rockies as surface
cyclogenesis occurs over the Plains and moves to the Dakotas. There
is a huge surge of moisture ahead of this system as a 60 knot low
level jet forms and points into the region Sunday night. In addition
there is forcing from a 150 knot upper jet. Precipitable water
values are around 1 inch during the night.

On Monday a cut-off low forms at the mid levels over the Dakotas and
surface low pressure becomes stationary over that region. There may
be a break in the precip on Monday as the core of the LLJ weakens
and moves east. Another round of precip is expected Monday night
ahead of the cold front and as a shortwave moves through. A branch
of the LLJ redevelops and provides another surge of moisture into
the region during this time. Some models show a small amount of
elevated instability mainly in the west, so added a chance
of thunder.

Temperatures warm with the strong southwest flow so precip type
is easily all rain. South winds will gust to around 20-30 miles
per hour.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Drier weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. The mid and
surface lows remain stacked over the Dakotas during the early part
of time time period but there is little left in the way of forcing.
Later in the week the low meanders east and a few shortwave drop
through the region. Right now it looks like most of the activity
stays mostly to our north, but wouldn`t be surprised to see chances
of showers added in later forecasts.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler later in this period as the
upper low hangs around and northwest flow dominates.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Cloud bases are bouncing around tonight, with occasional breaks
in clouds near the lakeshore. There is an area of lower clouds in
the 1000-2000 ft range on the western edge of the cloud deck.
Expect this to shift east with time late tonight.

Low clouds will gradually taper off from west to east through the
morning hours. A mid level cloud deck will move overhead for the
afternoon hours. Mid and high clouds will stream into the area
tonight and Sunday ahead of low pressure approaching from the
western Plains. There could be patchy fog tonight if there are any
periods of clearing.

&&

.MARINE...

Quiet marine conditions are likely until Sunday night when
south to southeast winds will increase ahead of an approaching low.
The low is expected to remain fairly stationary Monday and Tuesday,
keeping the breezy winds going. Wind gusts will likely reach gale
force at times from early Monday morning through late Tuesday night,
so there is a gale watch in effect for that time period.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WATCH from late Sunday night through late Monday night for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Marquardt



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