Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 161957
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
257 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions through Tuesday will result in a very high
  fire risk Sunday and potentially again on Tuesday.

- An active weather pattern is setting up the second half of the
  week with several chances for precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Winds will diminish at sunset leaving breezy but dry conditions
through sunrise Sunday.

On Sunday dry conditions will continue with winds increasing by late
morning and continuing through the afternoon. The combination of
winds, humidity and dry fuels will result in another very high fire
risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sunday night through Wednesday
Assessment...high confidence on dry conditions

The model consensus has dry conditions for the entire area as high
pressure moves through the Midwest. A warming trend will occur
through Tuesday as the high moves into the eastern Great Lakes. A
modified Canadian polar front will sweep through the area on Tuesday
bringing cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

Windy conditions will be seen Monday through Wednesday with the
strongest winds expected Tuesday. The winds combined with the warmer
temperatures on Tuesday may result in a high fire risk that day.

Attention then turns to the second half of the week with a
potentially more active weather pattern.

Wednesday night through Saturday
Assessment...medium to high confidence on an active pattern.
Low to medium confidence on precipitation timing and impacts.

The global models all agree that there will be several clipper type
systems moving through the Midwest in the Wednesday night through
Saturday time frame. However, there are disagreements in timing and
track which affects potential impacts.

The differences in track also show up in the respective ensemble
runs of the global models which unfortunately adds to the overall
uncertainty.

The first system looks to occur late Wednesday night through
Thursday. However with slight timing differences, the model
consensus spreads this out from Wednesday night through Thursday
night.

The CMC and ICON models are further south with the track which
supports a better snow potential. The GFS/ECMWF are further north
which lowers the snow potential.

Although the overall model solutions diverge, the consensus has the
highest pops Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which are
currently at 20 and 35-50 percent respectively.

If the system does not arrive until Thursday afternoon and night
then there may be a slightly better potential for snow if the track
is further south.

Regardless, the heat the ground has absorbed would melt most snow on
contact unless snowfall rates are higher.

Right now the model consensus suggests rain south of I-80 with a
rain/snow mix north of I-80.

The second clipper system will nearly on the heals of the first.
Again there is a wide spread with the global models and their
respective ensembles regarding timing and track of the system.

The CMC/ECMWF are much further north but differ on the timing by
nearly a day. The further north deterministic solutions thus raise
questions to any potential impacts.

The ICON does not have a system until late in the weekend while the
GFS holds on to the first system through Friday with no system
Friday night or Saturday.

Given these differences the model consensus is very spread out but
appears to be targeting Friday and Friday night as the slightly
better chances for precipitation at 30-40 and 25-30 percent
respectively. The Saturday pops of 20-30 appear to be in response to
the CMC and CMCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Low level mechanical turbulence will continue through sunset as
wings gust up to 30 knots. Winds will pick up again starting
around 15z/17 as the inversion breaks resulting in more low
level mechanical turbulence. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
through 00z/18.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08


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