Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 091717
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1117 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Wraparound low clouds and brisk northwest winds noted at 2 AM CST across
the forecast area. Trends support skies to gradually clear during the
morning hours with nearly steady temperatures. Fair skies and generally
below normal temperatures to continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average. Local tools
suggest area highs many locations may be 2 plus degrees too cool.

Today...skies to become mostly sunny by mid day with blustery northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph. Area highs of upper 20s to lower 30s with wind
chills staying in the teens.

Tonight...partly to mostly clear with diminishing winds shifting to
light southwest by morning. Area lows mostly in the 15 to 20 degree
range with favored low lying areas north possibly into the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

The overall northwest flow pattern will remain active with several
very weak systems interspersed with somewhat stronger systems.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Sunday with temperatures close
to normal. Attention then turns to the next system.

The track of the next system is still somewhat in question. However,
it appears that much of the area will be on the relatively warmer
side of the storm. Add in the initially dry atmosphere and the
better forcing across Wisconsin, areal coverage and amounts of any
snow are in question.

Sunday evening will be dry across the area. After midnight,
atmospheric profiles show some saturation aloft occurring. This
saturation combined with weak forcing should be enough to generate
some light snow. Areas north of a Manchester, IA to Sterling, IL
line have the best chances of seeing some light snow. Here snowfall
amounts of one half inch or less are possible. Flurries may occur as
far south as an arcing line from KIIB, to KMLI, to KVYS.

On Monday lingering light snow will taper to flurries during the
morning and then a flurry/sprinkle mix over the northeast third of
the area that will dissipate Monday evening.

Windy conditions will develop on Monday and Monday night behind the
departing system. The strongest winds look to occur mid to late
Monday afternoon and evening that may gust over 30 mph.

Tuesday on...

Breezy and colder conditions will be seen Tuesday and Tuesday night
as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Temperatures are
expected to average below normal. A weak disturbance passing through
in the flow aloft may or may not generate some flurries.

On Wednesday another weak system moves into the Great Lakes. Right
now this system is starved for moisture so mainly dry conditions are
expected. Some passing flurries are not out of the question.
Temperatures should be close to normal.

The model consensus has dry conditions Wednesday night as high
pressure quickly moves through the Midwest.

On Thursday another weak system moves through the Midwest. The model
consensus has this system passing to the south and west of the area.
Thus mainly dry conditions are forecast.

Thursday night/Friday the model consensus has dry conditions across
the area as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures
should be warmer than normal.

Looking toward next weekend, another storm system is forecast to
move through the Midwest. There are considerable disagreements
regarding the timing and track of this system. Right now the model
consenus has slight chance to chance pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Gusty north winds behind a clipper system exiting the Great Lakes
will diminish this afternoon. Associated low clouds will produce
periods of MVFR conditions included in the TAFS for CID, DBQ and
MLI early, along with scattered flurries. Tonight into Sunday, VFR
conditions are expected with another system over the Great Lakes
producing only a shift in wind direction at the surface over the
local TAF sites.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Sheets



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