Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 080555
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS


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