Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 112047
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The upper level shortwave/vorticity max continues to lift quickly
through western WI, with a band of snow pivoting along the westward
flank.  As of mid afternoon, the wave is beginning to quickly lift
out, and the band is beginning to weaken and the western edge is now
marching eastward.  This precip band will quickly lift out of the
area over the next couple of hours.

The main concern then becomes the cold.  Have issued a Wind Chill
Advisory for much of southern MN, but warmer temps and lesser winds
will allow the metro into western WI to remain warmer than advisory
criteria tonight.  As the arctic air pours in behind today`s system,
skies should clear out overnight and temperatures should fall below
to the teens below zero across western and central MN, to the single
digits below zero elsewhere.

Friday will be dry and mostly sunny.  With the arctic airmass in
place, highs will only reach the 0 to 5 above range.  There will be
a wave passing through the Dakotas tomorrow, but high pressure
pushing in form the north will keep any snow to the west of our
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The main story in the long term is the cold.  Through at least
midweek, subzero lows are expected every night, and daytime highs
will be in the single digits except for a slightly warmer day on
Sunday.

Canadian high pressure will slowly slide through the region from
tomorrow night through Saturday.  Clear and cold conditions are
expected during this time but winds should generally be light.

For Sunday, a quick moving upper wave will drop southeast through
Canada and likely bring light snow to the area, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours.  Temperatures should warm into the
teens ahead of this precip thanks to southerly winds developing
ahead of the wave.  Given the thermal profiles with this clipper,
snow ratios look to be around 20:1, so a light fluffy snow.  There
won`t be strong winds with the falling snow, but northwest winds
will increase behind this wave which could lead to some blowing and
drifting.

Arctic high pressure will build back in for early next week so
expect more cold and dry weather for Monday and Tuesday.  A zonal
flow pattern looks to develop toward the middle of next week which
will lead to warmer temperatures to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Still have the upper trough to swing east this afternoon. Strong
forcing will clip southeast MN and move across western WI this
afternoon resulting in a period of moderate to perhaps heavy snow
affecting mainly KEAU. This should end through 00Z with gradual
clearing to VFR during the evening. The snow should end in MN by
21z with conditions improving to VFR by 02z. Strong NW winds
expected with gusts to 35kts over the southern area through the
afternoon and tapering off through 06z. VFR conditions expected
then through the rest of the period.

KMSP...
MVFR cigs with snow and ocnl IFR vsbys should exit the area by
20z with conditions improving to VFR through 02z. Gusty NW winds
to remain through much of the overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night...VFR. Wind NNW 5-7kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Sun...MVFR with -SN likely. Wind S 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10
kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for WIZ014.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MNZ041-042-047-
     048-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for MNZ043>045-049>053-058-059-066-067-075-083>085-092-093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ078-
     085-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...DWE



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