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000
FXUS63 KMPX 020511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IN OUR CWA WITH DRY AIR AND MARGINAL FORCING
PRESENT.  THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES.  FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
CWA.  AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A GOOD SETUP FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THIS AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SNOW AND WIND REMAIN THE CONCERNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOLID BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS WITH SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN ENDING RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIED. THERE HAS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN A
WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE STORM TOTAL QPF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE TWO CORES OF MAX QPF
RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ON THE NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN.
ONE STRETCHES FROM EASTERN SD TOWARDS DULUTH WHILE THE SECOND IS
FROM NORTHERN IA TOWARDS GREEN BAY. THE FIRST CORE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS
AREA OF FGEN GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER FRONTOGENETIC BAND TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE 250MB JET SHOWS A
150KT MAX HEADING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT THAT FADES
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN REDEVELOPS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SEEMS TIED TO THE
PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS THAT OCCURS TO OUR
EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH STORM TOTAL QPF WITH
A MORE WIDESPREAD 0.20 TO 0.30 INCH AMOUNTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE
THREE TENTHS MORE IN WI. THIS LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE WPC
QPF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WITH THE GEFS. HOWEVER...THE GEFS SHOWS
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH OF SPREAD FOR TUESDAY FROM THE
TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND SOUTH. WE SIDED WITH THE WPC QPF. THIS
RESULTED IN SNOW AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN...3 INCHES HERE IN TWIN CITIES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH
AROUND 4 INCHES IN WESTERN WI. THE LAST TIME MSP HAD THREE INCHES
OF SNOW IN ONE DAY WAS JANUARY 8TH.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AND THEN RACING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MN RIVER VALLEY. NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES
FROM KMOX THROUGH KRWF AND KFRM CONTINUE TO SHOW 25-30 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP
OF THE MOMENTUM CHANNEL HITTING AROUND 40 KNOTS. THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL NOW FOR 2 DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE MAVMOX
GUIDANCE SHOWS 28...29 AND 28 KNOTS FOR 15Z...18Z AND 21Z ON
TUESDAY. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A BLIZZARD IS COMING FOR THE MN RIVER
VALLEY BUT OFFICES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THOUGHT THERE WAS TOO
MUCH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH FORWARD WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH
AT THIS POINT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT WILL BE VERY COLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. THE TREND TODAY WAS TO CONTINUE TO TRIM LOWS/HIGHS FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIODS. THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE COLDEST WITH
LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW IN THE TWIN CITIES WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
ELSE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE. EVEN WITH THESE COLD
LOWS..WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS AWAY FROM ANY RECORD LOWS.
HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH AS THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AFTER THIS SMALL POCKET OF MVFR CEILINGS DIMINISHES...WE EXPECT
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW MOVES
IN AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE SLOWED DOWN THE
WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND KEPT MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT LONGER...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GOING SOUTH. SNOW MOVES IN
LATE TONIGHT. THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A ROUGH ONE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR SN LIKELY AND BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS S 10KTS
BECOMING NW 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADL
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF