000
FXUS63 KGRB 112147
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
447 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SEVERAL FCST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDING:
MARINE DENSE FOG TNGT ALONG LAKE MI...HOW FAR NORTH ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET LATER TNGT...HOW FAR TO TAKE POPS NORTH ON WED AND FINALLY
HOW WARM TEMPS CAN GET FOR WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK HI PRES OVER UPR MI WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. A
WRMFNT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY CNTRL NEBRASKA E-SE INTO SRN IL.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC PAINTED WEAK ELEVATED SHWRS TRAVERSING CNTRL/
SRN WI BACK INTO THE SRN HALF OF MN. THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST
IS THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER LK MI AS MOIST AIR RUNS OVER THE
COOLER WATERS.

AS A RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROF TOPS THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG OVER
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...COUPLED WITH A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES SITUATED OVER SW IA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BLOSSOM WELL TO OUR W-SW TNGT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SW WI
OVRNGT. THIS PCPN WL BE FUELED BY INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/
ISEN LIFT AND WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE...SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WHILE ALL OF THIS IS GOING ON...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NE WI WL REMAIN QUIET WITH WEAK HI PRES
NEARBY. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI LEAVING MAINLY
ONLY LATE NGT SMALL POPS. MIN TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NGT WITH
A FEW UPR 40S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60 DEGS OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

EXPECT OVRNGT CONVECTION OVER SRN MN/NRN IA/SW WI/NRN IL TO WEAKEN
WED MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALSO WEAKENS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NEARLY THE SAME AREA
WED AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MAIN PCPN
SHIELD WL MOVE INTO CNTRL WI...HOWEVER ANY SVR STORMS APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED TO SRN WI WHERE A SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED BY SPC. NRN WI
ON THE OTHER HAND TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS WL PROVIDE THE UNUSUAL SITUATION WHERE WARMER TEMPS TO
BE OVER NRN WI WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGS COMPARED TO ONLY MID
70S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI UNDER THE CLOUDS/PCPN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE. EVENTUALLY THE
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM NORTH WITH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF INITIAL PCPN...TREND APPEARS
TO BE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE WAA RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
REGION OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODELS IN GENERAL DRIVE THIS FRONT
THROUGH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY TURNING OUT TO BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MODELS THEN DRAG A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
CANADIAN SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY...FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDY WEATHER WITH SCT SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARD TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

TRENDS SET FORTH IN PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE STILL SEEM VALID...SO
LITTLE CHG ANTICIPATED WITH 00Z ISSUANCE. MAIN QUESTION IS PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS BUILT ARND THE IDEA THAT
FCST AREA WL GET CLIPPED BY NE CORNER OF MCS TRACKING ACRS NERN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL TOMORROW MORNING. IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD HAVE
SOME SCT SHRA TOMORROW MORNING...THEN LIKELY QUIET WX TOMORROW
AFTN AS ATM RECOVERS. IF THE MORNING MCS DOESN/T MATERIALIZE OR IS
FARTHER S...THEN THE MORNING WL BE DRY AND CHC OF TSRA WOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI