Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 290008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
708 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An area of showers moved out of eastern Wisconsin by early
afternoon but another round of showers, and thunderstorms, was
moving through north central and parts of central Wisconsin. This
second round was associated with a mid level short wave and
surface cold front. The latest RAP and HRRR showed the second area
of showers exiting the state by early evening, with convection
that was moving into western Wisconsin this afternoon dissipating
or at least weakening considerably with loss of daytime heating.

There looks to be a lull in the convective activity during the
night, but still have some PoPs mainly across north central
Wisconsin closer to the surface and upper level cyclones. The
chance for showers, and some thunderstorms, will increase again on
Memorial Day with daytime heating destabilizing the atmosphere and
another mid level short wave moving across Wisconsin.

A cooler air mass, clouds, and rain will keep temperatures cooler
on Memorial Day than they were today. Highs are expected to range
from the middle 50s to the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Cyclonic upper flow will keep mostly cloudy and cool
weather across our area through Wednesday along with scattered
showers mostly in the afternoon and evening hours.

Northwest upper flow forecast Thursday and Friday, though
scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
and Friday as a shortwave trough moves through the flow.

Saturday and Sunday`s forecast is a little less certain, as the
models have big differences in the movement of upper jet energy
from the Plains states. The GFS looks more reasonable with a
chance of showers versus the ECMWF idea of heavy rain Saturday.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will exit Door county in the next hour or
so, as a cold front moves through. Additional showers and
isolated storms associated with an upper level disturbance will
impact mainly north central WI this evening.

VFR conditions are anticipated over most of northeast and east
central WI through the TAF period, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to arrive over north central and central WI late tonight
into Monday morning. Showers will increase in coverage during the
late morning and afternoon on Monday, and become numerous over
north central WI later in the day. The steadier rain may cause
ceilings to drop to IFR at RHI during the late afternoon.

Gusty west winds will subside early this evening, then pick up
again by mid to late Monday morning.


Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Westerly winds, occasionally gusting to near 25 knots, are
expected Memorial Day.



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