Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 262037
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
237 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NRN STREAM SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
WL BE LIMITED. SYSTEM WL CONT TO GENERATE SOME S- ACRS THE N LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AND THAT WL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
LAKE-EFFECT EVENT DURING THE NGT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY WL BE WIND DIRECTION...WHICH WL
INITIALLY BE TOO NELY. THAT RESULTS IN TOO LONG OF AN OVER-LAND
TRAJECTORY FOR MUCH OF THE NGT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BY
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WL BE WORKING AGAINST THE LAKE-EFFECT BY THAT POINT.
HAVE 24 HR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNOWBELT OF AROUND 4 INCHES...
WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD BE W AND NW OF THE FCST AREA...WHERE THE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

THE LGT SNOW FM N-C WL WL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME. IT
WL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR THE SNOW TO TOTALLY PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. WENT WITH ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF SNOW ACRS THE AREA.
WL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS IN THE HWO AND AN SPS.

THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD AIR WL BE SWD TO OUR W TNGT...SO
TEMPS MAY NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH. THE COLDER AIR WL SURGE EWD/SEWD
ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW...SO TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH DURING
THE DAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THAT WL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

26/12Z MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROF FRIDAY. GENERAL
1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO THIS PART OF THE LONG
TERM.

SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MID-MORNING...THEN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVE FROM W TO E AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY AND
MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB MOVES IN.

BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS FLOW BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES A BIT...BUT TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL RETURN AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE SPLIT FLOW BY THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...PUNCTUATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

MODEL MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO COLD FRI NIGHT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND WHICH ADDS 6 TO 10 DEGS TO
THE FRI NIGHT GFS MOS GUID LOWS. BLENDED MODEL GUID IS USED FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BELOW AN INVERSION ALOFT IS CAUSING PATCHES OF
LOW CLDS TO DRIFT ACRS THE AREA. THE LOWEST CIGS WERE IN E-C
WI...AND WL PROBABLY STAY THERE THIS AFTN. COLDER AIR WL START TO
MV SE ACRS THE AREA TNGT. THAT WL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
UNIFORM...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI





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