Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 240354
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS STATES WILL SET UP
A GOOD SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE OVER A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IS
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINS TRAVELING OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY. NO BIG FLOOD
WORRIES TONIGHT OR SUNDAY BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS
ABOVE BANKFULL BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN USUAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT SETTING UP AS STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE NOTED AT 850MB...WHILE COOL COOL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW NOTED
AT THE SURFACE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. LINGERED
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAY NEED FROST HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.
A DRY DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER ON SUNDAY IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MARINETTE
LINE AFTER 12Z WITH MVFR FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM MARINETTE TO WAUSAU. LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
MARINETTE TO WAUSAU WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IF THIS MUCH RAIN MATERIALIZES...IT
WILL CAUSE SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ESB
HYDROLOGY......RDM



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