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000
FXUS63 KGRR 191740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
MAINLY SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERGO A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME
UNTIL THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE RATHER MINIMAL. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER OUR ESE FCST AREA LATER TODAY OVER
TOWARD LAN/JXN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

OTHERWISE FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOW MODERATING TREND OF TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS BY
MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY IS PEAKING WITH LIFTED INDICES PROGGED TO BE AROUND
MINUS 6 AS THE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES LIFT. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE TREND WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUICKER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP...WITH DRYING WORKING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES AOA 4K FT. THIS CU WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALONG THE
SHORE...A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY 8-10KTS AT KMKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF AT TO MAINLY BELOW TWO FEET
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LITTLE OR NO QPF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS FALLING RIVER
LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...LAURENS