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000
FXUS63 KGRR 161749
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BRING A LITTLE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF MUSKEGON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
I-96 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. MAX TEMPS
WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO WI MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
MIXED PCPN NORTH OF MUSKEGON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT DRY WX
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN STRONG SOUTH
TO SW FLOW WAA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN MAINLY WELL
NORTH OF I-96. NORTH TO NW WINDS BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL ADVECT
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY. SOME
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY IN AREA OF
STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVING
IN AND FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING STOPS. THE WIND WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EVART RIVER LEVELS REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY WHILE SCOTTVILLE AND
CROTON HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. THE ONLY
OTHER WARNING OF NOTE IS MOUNT PLEASANT WHICH IS EXPERIENCING MINOR
FLOODING. THERES BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SHEER NUMBER OF THE SEVERAL
REMAINING ADVISORIES STILL OUT.

THERE IS A BIG POSITIVE HERE. RIVER LEVELS HAVE EITHER ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CRESTS OR ARE CURRENTLY DOING SO...INCLUDING EVART.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A QUICK SPRINKLE MAY MIX IN WITH A FLURRY OR
TWO NORTH OF MUSKEGON. CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. THEN LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS
NOT HAVING ANY REAL IMPACT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...JAM