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000
FXUS63 KGRR 241743
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1243 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LUDINGTON AND
MUSKEGON AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE IN GRAND RAPIDS
AND HOLLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. WIND NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER IMPACTS IN RURAL AREAS LIKELY ONGOING GIVEN THE
CURRENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEBCAM FROM LUDINGTON SHOWS THE SNOW HAS LARGELY
STOPPED. COULD BE SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH WISCONSIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HEADLINES GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL OCCUR NW OF KGRR DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED IN KGRR
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN THAT FURTHER SE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE
WHERE STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA FROM 4 AM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF
THE SNOW AND WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY NW OF KGRR.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COLD WX WEDNESDAY. SUB ZERO MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WITH EXPANSIVE SNOW COVER IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT/S MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH THAT HAS
BROUGHT REPEATED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR (WHICH WILL HANG ON MUCH OF
THIS WEEK) LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL FEEL WARMER
GIVEN THE VERY COLD WEATHER OF THE LAST TWO WEEKS.

REGARDING WEATHER DETAILS...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS
QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA. COLD AIR
HANGS ON INTO FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS BE BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH ALSO SHOW THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH
AND NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN INDICATING A WEAK
WAVE BEING SHEARED EAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD SUPPORT LITTLE
IF ANY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED JUST A BIT
COLDER...SO WHAT FALLS SHOULD BE SNOW. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
BIG SNOWS...BUT A 3 TO 6 SWATH IS A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SNOW OCCURRING IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN ALL THE FACTORS
MENTIONED ABOVE. LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SWATH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE
WITH TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO LATCH ON TO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRST BAND OF LIFR SNOW NOW PASSING THROUGH KGRR AND EXPECTED TO
IMMPROVE A BIT TO IFR AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK ESE THROUGH
KAZO...KLAN..AND KJXN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THOSE WILL ALSO DEVELOP
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF LIFR SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN KLDM AROUND
22Z...AND THEN PRESSING SE REACHING KJXN AROUND 02Z. THEREAFTER
(03-06Z) EXPECT VFR WITH UNLIMITED VIS AND CIGS AT OR ABOVE 035
KFT WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR SNOW WED EVENING
INTO THU MORNING SOUTH OF KBIV TO KLAN LINE. SNOW WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

WITH NO MAJOR WARM UPS OR RAINFALL HEADED OUR WAY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED. SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL
OCCUR.  CONSIDERABLE ICE DOES EXIST IN THE RIVERS SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. FOR NOW WITH CONDITIONS STABLE DUE TO
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE RISK IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...MJS