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000
FXUS63 KGRR 180335
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BUT IT/S AFFECTS WILL BE FELT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. SFC OBS REVEAL SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR SW LWR. ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WON/T APPROACH LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER COMFORTABLE SLEEPING NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN COOLER AIR
ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY. A SIMILAR SITUATION
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING DUE TO MODEL SPREAD.

A DRY STRETCH IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODEL
SPREAD EXISTING BY MID WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND THE
STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND WHETHER ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL FLATTEN IT IN
OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES...AS SHOWN BY 500 MB HEIGHT PLOTS
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT...AND THE 12Z EURO IS NOW COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH AT LEAST THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DIFFERENCES EVOLVE WITH FROPA HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS MOVING THE
FEATURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP A
BIT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH...A MODEL BLEND
REVEALS MARGINAL POPS / 30-40 PCT / FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD UNTIL
GREATER CONSISTENCY SHOWS UP IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. RAIN IS CERTAINLY NOT A GUARANTEE AT THIS POINT.

REGARDING TEMPS...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EVEN A BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR SUN-TUE. TAKING AN AVG OF 850 TEMPS BETWEEN THE
EURO...GFS...AND GEM WOULD YIELD MID TO UPPER 80S AT THE SFC FOR MON
AND TUES. WITH RISING DEW POINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE BY
THAT TIME...IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM. THE WARMEST TEMP FOR GRR THIS
YEAR SO FAR IS 88 WHILE LAN HAS REACHED 87 AND MKG 88. COULD GET
CLOSE TO THOSE FIGURES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THEN WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. MKG
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LAKE
BREEZE. ALSO EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT BASES
SHOULD BE HIGH MOSTLY ABOVE 4000 FT ALG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN BLO 3 FEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ENABLE THE
MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS TO SLOWLY FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE LATE
FRIDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93