Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291515 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy into at least early
afternoon as a shortwave rolls through the area. Will see a few
showers in the north where there is better moisture and lift.
Should see some sunshine in the afternoon, especially in the
southern forecast area, so should have no problem reaching
forecast high temps. Based on latest mesoscale models, may
consider some low pops in the west later this afternoon for a few
showers and maybe an isolated storm.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Current MVFR ceilings associated with a shortwave will eventually
improve to VFR most places by this afternoon as daytime mixing
increases. Will see a few showers in the north with this wave and
maybe a few showers and an isolated storm in the west late in the
afternoon. It looks mainly dry then overnight through the day
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Look for southwest to west winds of 10 to 20 knots today, with a few
gusts possibly to 25 knots right along the shore.  Winds will tend
to be a bit lighter out toward open water...but then waves will be
higher due to the westerly flow.  Otherwise, winds and waves are
expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through
Memorial Day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...The upper trough and sfc trough
approaching the MS River will move across S WI mainly this morning.
Isolated to scattered showers will occur mainly over the northern
half of the forecast area. Subsidence via AVA in the afternoon
should suppress the potential for convection, but enough Cape that
is weakly capped will bring at least a slight chance over the far
northern forecast area. There will be some sunshine early, followed
by a mostly cloudy period, then transitioning back to partly cloudy.
The sunshine and a drier airmass should support high temps in the
upper 70s. For tonight wly winds will continue but weaken toward
morning as a sfc ridge approaches the MS river. Temps are expected
to fall into the upper 50-lower 60s.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is
Medium.

Models show weak high pressure over the region on Memorial Day.
Area forecast soundings are fairly dry across the area, so kept
the dry forecast going.

There is some focused 850 mb warm air advection in northeast
Iowa on Memorial Day, which tries to help kick off some showers
and storms in that area. However, think that this activity should
remain southwest of the area until Monday night. Another warm day
is expected, with highs in the lower 80s inland and 70s near the
lake as winds turn onshore.

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models show gradual warm air advection
developing, bringing more moisture and humidity back into the
region by Tuesday night. Surface warm front shifts northeast into
the area Tuesday, then to the northeast Tuesday night as the cold
front approaches the region from the west. 500 mb vorticity
maximum slides northeast into the region Tuesday night as well.
Thus, continued to ramp up pops gradually Monday night into
Tuesday night across the area.

Area forecast soundings show a gradual buildup of mean layer CAPE
with the moisture pushing into the region. Deep layer shear gets
better by Tuesday night as well, though it remains modest at best
at this point. Another warm day in the lower 80s is forecast for
Tuesday inland, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas in the
70s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF/GFS bring cold front eastward through the region Wednesday,
exiting Wednesday night. This is accompanied by a 500 mb shortwave
trough passage. The ECMWF is a bit quicker with the progression of
these features. Still, feel comfortable with the likely pops for
Wednesday. Would like to see better deep layer shear and mean
layer CAPE for more organized severe convection than what the GFS
forecast soundings are showing. Still several days away and
things may get more favorable as we get closer. Warm temperatures
should continue Wednesday.

Kept lower end pops for Wednesday night into Thursday, as 500 mb
vorticity maximum moves through and another approaches the area
from the northwest. Cooler and drier air moves into the region
behind the cold front for later in the week, perhaps bringing an
extended period of dry conditions.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...There will be a period of cloudiness this
morning into the early afternoon with possibly the exception of far
SE WI which may stay partly cloudy. The clouds are associated with
the passage of a trough of low pressure. Cigs will range from 1-3
kft for a few hours this morning over south central WI. Skies will
become partly cloudy during the afternoon with cumulus bases around
5 kft. The trough passage will bring small chances of showers this
morning mainly north of Madison and Milwaukee with slight chances of
tstorms this afternoon toward central WI. Mostly clear skies are
then expected tonight.

MARINE...Patchy dense fog will occur at times through 13z from
around Port Washington to Sheboygan. Increasing swly winds will end
the fog later this morning. Wly winds will then gust to 20 kts
today. Light winds and low wave heights are then expected through at
least Tuesday.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood



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