000
FXUS63 KMKX 020455
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1055 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
BE A SNOW/RAIN MIX. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY REACH AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON MONDAY EVENING. ALSO A FEW MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS EAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

NORTHEAST 1000-850MB FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE EVENING.
STRATUS THAT SPREAD INTO EASTERN WI SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE EAST/OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER WI AND IA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP TO BRING THE LAKE
STRATUS BACK INLAND MONDAY MORNING. UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW LOW THOSE
CLOUDS WILL BE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS ROLLING IN. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY ADVECTION AND 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WISCONSIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IT WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF FOND DU
LAC AND LAKE GENEVA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE
STRONGER OMEGA FOR LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE QUICKLY...AND THAT IS NOT
GOING TO BE THE CASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST WI. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS...A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW IT LIKELY STARTING AS LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE
EVENING...BUT TRANSITIONING QUICKLY TO A RAIN/SNOW THEN RAIN FORM
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR FLOWS NORTH. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE A TRANSITION.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FEATURED WIDE MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF/GEM HAD BEEN THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE GFS/NAM WERE
MUCH FASTER. THE MORNING RUNS ARE SHOWING A TIGHTENING UP OF THIS
SPREAD...BUT THEIR RESPECTIVE BIAS CONTINUES. GIVEN THAT THE
MODELS ARE STILL WORKING IT OUT...A BLENDED/CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO
THE SPEED IS THE BEST APPROACH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY. SO...EXPECT ON AND OFF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE SIT IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A RATHER PERSISTENT DEEP OMEGA FROM A
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PERSISTENT WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ON TUESDAY TO TURN ANY LINGERING
WINTRY MIX OVER TO ALL RAIN. AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
IN THESE CASES IT/S USUALLY VERY MINOR OR EVEN NON-EXISTENT AS THE
PRECIP USUALLY GETS OUT OF HERE BEFORE THE COLDER TEMPS GET IN
HERE.

WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING...WITH FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPS.

OVERALL...WE WON/T SEE A LOT OF PRECIP...ABOUT 1/4 INCH. MOST OF
THAT WILL BE RAIN.

THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

COLD. THE AIRMASS COMING IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT WILL BE
COLDER THAN THE ONE WE EXPERIENCED AT THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS
FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. BUT...THIS COLD AIR COMES COMPLIMENTS OF BIG HIGH
PRESSURE...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR STRATUS OVER SHEBOYGAN SHOULD HANG TIGHT THIS EVENING AND
PROBABLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THE REST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER MN AND IA WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND COULD PUSH LAKE CLOUDS INTO SOUTHEAST WI. UNCERTAIN ABOUT WHAT
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE WITH THESE CLOUDS...BUT MVFR WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY.

LOOK FOR LIGHT RAIN OR MAYBE RAIN/SNOW TO SPREAD INTO MADISON AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT. IT
WOULD BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO REACH MILWAUKEE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS