000
FXUS63 KMKX 081634 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST A REDUCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A
WIDESPREAD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. MINOR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER
OF 20 METERS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN A
SLIGHT RISE BY MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING TO ABOUT -9C IN THE
AFTERNOON...READINGS SHOULD ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH 80 METER 500 MB
HEIGHT RISES. SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA IN THE EVENING BUILDS INTO
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS LATE WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST AIR AT 925/850 MB IS IN THE EVENING WITH
VALUES RISING ABOUT 8C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT
TRICKY TEMPERATURES LATE AT NIGHT. READINGS SHOULD DROP DURING THE
EVENING BUT THEN MAY LEVEL OFF LATE.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LINGERS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL
HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...WITH
AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 40S ON MONDAY.

COULD CERTAINLY SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME...AS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW DAYS RECENTLY THAT HAVE WARMED
HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES...DESPITE
THE THICK SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. WENT ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS.

NOT SEEING MUCH DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IN THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS...EXPECT ONLY
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT QPF MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE EXITING THE
REGION. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION
DURING THIS TIME...SO KEPT LOWER END POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAY SEE A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING MAINLY TO
LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE IN THIS
OCCURRING...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE GETS. LIGHT
RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BEFORE COLDER AIR PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.

MAIN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO LINGER.

GFS/ECMWF TRY TO BRING MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

STARTING TO GET MORE MIXING SO MVFR HAZE GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
MVFR CEILING SHOULD HANG AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.

MODELS DO LINGER MOISTURE MOST OF THE DAY AROUND 2000 FEET AGL
BUT SHOW SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DRYING IN THE 5000-10000 FOOT
LAYER. SO WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT COULD PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THIS IS DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL PRESSURE RISES.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN FORMS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
FROM MINNESOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR. RATHER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE
AND MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD