000
FXUS63 KMKX 262018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL FRONT...BEST DEFINED AT 850
MB...WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING UPWARD OF 2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH
THE STORMS IF THEY DO GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS OF AROUND
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...SO DECREASED THUNDER CHANCES A BIT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BEFORE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15
CELSIUS AND AROUND 8 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP BELOW A STRONG 725 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL VERY LOW...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
FORM WITH HIGH RH AROUND 850 MB AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO
10 CELSIUS/KM AND CAPE AROUND 70 JOULES/KG BELOW THE INVERSION.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES. MAINLY
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...DESPITE THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH LATE EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
ALONG 850 MB COLD FRONT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING DRY AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO
SHOULD MAINLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUST THEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...BUT MAY
GET NEAR OR ABOVE 4 FEET FOR A TIME AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ