Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 300142
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
842 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS BROUGHT A PERIOD OF CLEARING TO A
GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE FAR SOUTHEAST IS SEEING THE LOWER STUFF HANG ON...AND IT
MAY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR THERE TONIGHT. WHERE IT IS CLEAR...IT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING IN QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2
AM...THEN TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGREES ONCE THE CLOUDS BLANKET
THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR CLOUDS ARE LURKING AROUND THE KENW AREA...THEN STRETCHING
SOUTH THROUGH ILLINOIS. SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE LOOPS AT MID EVENING...AND TRENDS SUGGEST IT MAY MAKE
IT INTO KMKE/KUES OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO KMSN/MKE/KUES/KENW BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-20Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS/VSBYS EVENTUALLY GOING TO MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON AND IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WI. WINDS WILL BE STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL IN THE UPPER 30S MOST PLACES...MAYBE A FEW SPOTS OF MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT THOUGH...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHWEST BY AROUND NOON. DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM IN THE MORNING...BUT
WILL COOL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH COOLEST CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO SAT EVE AS THE
LEAD VORT MAX...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NE...MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS SRN WI. 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY THE PVA WITHIN AN AIRMASS OF PWS AROUND ONE
INCH. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS SUN INTO SUN EVE BUT
WITH THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE PASSING ACROSS SRN IA AND IL. THUS
NELY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT SRN WI ON SUN BUT WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LINGERING LGT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SUN AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO WI
FOR MON WI MO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST LATER IN THE WEEK. A CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR WED-THU...BECOMING A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN AND SERN USA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR
A WARM TUE FOLLOWED BY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WITH THE FROPA AND
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOR TUE NT AND WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO WI FOR THU- FRI. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS STILL HOLDING ON TO MVFR AT THIS
TIME.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN RAINFALL SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE STEADY RAINFALL SETTLES IN.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING


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