000
FXUS63 KMKX 121943
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO SC
WI. MASSIVE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...MID/UPPER 30S
IN THE NE CWA AND MID 70S IN THE SOUTH WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50S. ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING STILL TRAVERSING ACROSS CNTRL AND PORTIONS
OF SRN WI. THIS INITIAL 850 JET CORE WILL TRANSLATE EAST. MEANWHILE
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURING FROM IOWA AND
ILLINOIS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS INTO FAR
SC WI. INSTABILITY PROGS...LI/S...MLCAPE...CRAVEN SIG/SVR...K INDEX
ALL SHOW THE DESTABILIZING TREND WELL INTO SC WI. 4KM WRF/RAP/HRRR
ARE ALL KEYING ON WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA WITH STORMS
TRANSLATING ACRS SRN WI THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE IN KS PROGGD TO LIFT
NE AND HELP INTIIATE STORMS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR. ADDING FURTHER
SUPPORT WILL BE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 200-300 MILLIBAR JET ACROSS U.P. STRONGEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH. LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HAD ITS SAY
ON HOLDING UP THE NORTHWARD PUSH IN ERN WI. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
NEGATIVE IS THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. BOTTOM LINE...AT
THIS POINT ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS IN PLACE TO WARRANT THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK INTO SRN WI. SVR THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SFC WRM FRONT IN SC WI.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ACTIVE PATERN PERSISTS. WHILE ONE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THE ACTIVE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. PROGS SUGGEST
A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF STEADY
RAINS/THUNDER RIDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. 850 BAROCLINIC TIGHTENS
UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH A RENWED 850 JET CORE INCREASING ACROSS
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE FORCING ACROSS SRN WI.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE 250 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE.

THE 925/850/700 MB LATER IS SATURATED SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DOES DRY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

700 UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG SUNDAY EVENING BUT WEAKENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DOWNWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TIP.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TAKES A LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPREADS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES DROP...AND
NAM SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER THIS
HAPPENS AFTER MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE BEHIND. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECOMES DOWNWARD.

MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN RH WEST OF MADISON
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT
SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS OCCURS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH AND WEST
WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS.
THE 12Z GFS LIFTS THIS LOW INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF BRINGS IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND ITS DEPARTING LOW.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE 12Z GFS MOVES THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS THE SURFACE HIGH. THE TIMING
REMAINS OFF BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF TONIGHTS RAIN...AND THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE.

HAVE ISSUED AN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SC WI WITH MORE STABLE
EASTERLY FLOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WC WI
LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF TAF ROUTES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS IA AND ROLLS ACROSS SRN WI NEAR WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. AS LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ACRS SRN WI TNGT AND SUNDAY
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR. THIS PLAYED OUT ON MOS AND
LLVL RH PROGS. WHILE A BREAK IN RAIN/STORMS POSSIBEL DURING THE
MORNING EXPECTE A RENEWED SURGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PRETTY BORDERLINE NORTH OF SFC WARM
FRONT THOUGH SOME ONSHORE GUSTS TO AOA 20 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE AS
IS. AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY JUST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN LAKE ZONE. CONFIDNCE NOT HIGH
THAT THAT WARM FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE LOW WEAKENING TO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH. GRADIENT TRYING TO
TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A SMIDGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ