000
FXUS63 KMKX 201711 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE NEAR THE LAKE. PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS IN MODELS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND...WITH 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS TAF SITES...AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAY SEE MVFR FOG AT
KENOSHA FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY.

SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA WITH LAKE BREEZE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER JET IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA.  WEAK 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

850/700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON.  WEAK 850/700 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK 700MB UPWARD MOTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS COULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT WEAK WINDS AND MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS FROM FORMING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE WEAK SOUTH
FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN DEW POINTS.
MORE DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...BUT A
CAP AROUND 6 TO 7 THSD FT WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. EXPECTING SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP INTO NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN WI.

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL MN AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI ON
TUE AS IT DISSIPATES. THE AMOUNT OF REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL IMPACT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION POTENTIAL. AT
THIS TIME...SPC CHOSE TO KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST OUT OF A SLIGHT
RISK.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI...ALONG WITH A WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER
JET FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT
ALSO A CAP. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OR HAIL.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER WI SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR PRECIP CHANCES AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN A CLOSED
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN RIVER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER LAND WILL
ADVECT OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC