585
FXUS63 KMKX 161700
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1200 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...Ongoing forecast is on track. No need for changes at
this time.

PC

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR SKC for this forecast period. Stronger
WSW lower level wind max moving through tonight with decent low
level inversion so looks like a favorable setup for some LLWS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 858 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

UPDATE...Ongoing forecast is on track. No need for changes at
this time.

PC

MARINE...Will be monitoring the need for a small craft advisory
into midweek as pressure gradient tightens with increasing
south/southwest winds.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 615 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

UPDATE...Lingering mid clouds over eastern CWA will continue to
clear across the eastern CWA next several hours. Farther west,
temperatures have fallen into the 35 to 39 degree range resulting
in patchy frost. The frost will continue through 1230-13Z before
temperatures begin to rise.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected for this forecast
period. Fog in the Wisconsin River Valley will thin and dissipate
after 13Z. Few-sct cumulus are expected to develop later this
morning. Otherwise, passing high clouds at times due to increasing warm
air advection across the western Great Lakes.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 311 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Mid clouds produced by passing mid-level short wave should
continue to progress east, and exit the area by early this
morning. A few sprinkles were shaken out of the mid-clouds around
KUNU.

Northwest orientated upper jet moves off to the east of the area
this morning, allowing milder more zonal flow to spread into the
western Great Lakes today, and persists through much of the week.
Atmosphere will remain dry with a few-sct cumulus redeveloping
later this morning. Warm air advection will most likely bring a
period of high clouds across the area later today and tonight.

Patchy frost still likely in the west early this morning, due to
mid clouds moving off to the east and light surface winds. Better
low level mixing and warmer low levels will keep temperatures
mostly in the 40s tonight with no frost threat.

Tuesday Through Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models remain in good agreement with generally zonal 500 mb flow
across the region during this period. There is a weak shortwave
trough that crosses the area on Wednesday. Steady warm air
advection continues into Tuesday across the area, with another
shot on Wednesday. A weak surface trough/cold front slides east
southeast across the area Wednesday night. Area forecast soundings
suggest a pretty dry airmass will be in place during this period.
Thus, kept the forecast dry.

A relatively tight pressure gradient during this period should
bring gusty southwest winds, especially on Wednesday. Highs should
reach the middle to upper 60s Tuesday, and around 70 on
Wednesday. These may get a bit warmer than currently forecast.
Lows should remain in the middle to upper 40s.

LONG TERM...

Thursday Through Friday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models remain in good agreement with features during this period.
They have a 500 mb ridge developing across the southeastern part
of the country during this time. This brings more southwesterly
500 mb flow across the region Friday into Friday night. This will
allow for warm air advection to develop once again on Friday over
the region, with increasing south to southwest winds.

Airmass remains fairly dry during this period, so kept the dry
forecast going. Warm temperatures into the upper 60s Thursday
should rise into the lower 70s for Friday, and may get a bit
warmer than currently forecast.

Saturday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing better agreement with a cold front sliding
eastward across the region Saturday night into Sunday. This is
accompanied by an elongated 500 mb shortwave trough. There are
some timing differences between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models.

Left the consensus blended model PoPs going for Saturday afternoon
into Sunday. Left small chances for thunder in as well Saturday
afternoon and night. Another warm day with highs into the lower
70s on Saturday is forecast. Again, it may get a bit warmer than
that.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

A VFR period is expected. Mid-high clouds over southern WI attm
will clear out to the east early this morning. Expect some few-sct
cu to develop this morning, but low ceilings are not expected.
Warm air advection may bring another round of mid-high clouds
later today or tonight. Strengthening low level winds above
shallow inversion tonight will create low level wind shear
scenario later in the night.

MARINE...

Much less wind is expected today. West winds will turn to the
southwest later this morning, and most likely turn more south over
the near shore waters for a time this afternoon. A tightening
pressure gradient tonight and Tuesday will likely result in SSW
gusty winds, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels for a
time on Tuesday.

The pressure gradient will most likely tighten again Wednesday
into Wednesday night, resulting in another round of gusty
southwest winds possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood