000
FXUS63 KMKX 070240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
840 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND A FRESH SNOWPACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RADIATE OUT VERY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SOME SPOTS HAD DROPPED
BELOW OUR PREDICTED LOWS BY 8 PM. PROBABLY WON/T SEE ANY
MEANINGFUL CLOUD COVER UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE BLANKETING CLOUDS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO
RISE BY TOWARD MORNING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IS FOR SKY
COVER AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY RAIN SHOULD BECOME MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. ALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...LESS THAN .10 INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY NOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL REALLY RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. THE STRONG SURFACE INVERSION
WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH GETS HERE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND THEN RAPID WARMING FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION EVENTS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO REALLY WARM US UP...ESPECIALLY IN MARCH...DESPITE
THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER. WENT WITH MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND
CONSENSUS OF MODELS- USED THE BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 40S OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
WHERE ANY POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP MAY FALL. THEREFORE...KEPT THE SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING. BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE PROFILE...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN
THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT
IS GOING TO TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR RAIN OVER
SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR IT. THUS...CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING 95 KNOT 250 KNOT JET
MAX AHEAD OF A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST VERY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE FRIDAY EVENING WITH WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 700 MB RH IS HIGH...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE. ALSO
THE 700 MB RH DRIES LATE WHEN THE UPWARD MOTION OCCURS. 925/850 MB
LAYER DOES SATURATE...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY AROUND 0.05 INCH...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE NAM AND CRAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...WITH A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM 3 TO 7 THSD FT. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A MIX TO LIGHT SNOW. FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE LOW.

PRECIPITATION ENDS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY DRY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY BUT 700 MB RH IS LOW SO EXPECT MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX.

850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 2.5
CELSIUS.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MID/UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER
LEAD SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH BY TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE
DRIER. PREFER THE DRIER MODELS. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER LOW EXITING
EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
THE EXTENDED MODELS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES COOL
ON WEDNESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN.

COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING LATER THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOWER CIGS AND
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN TO
WAUKESHA TO JANESVILLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ