000
FXUS63 KMKX 110941
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  CLEARING SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID
AS WELL. DON/T LET THE SUN FOOL YOU...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY AS A POTENT
THERMAL TROF MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON...925MB TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING TO ABOUT -20...GIVE OR TAKE. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN AROUND ZERO OR EVENING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

ANOTHER QUICK HITTING SHORT WAVE WITH SOME FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION
WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEFORE THAT...CLEAR SKIES AND THAT
THERMAL TROF OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE COMBO OF THESE TEMPS AND SOME ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL
RESULT IN MOST AREAS HITTING OR AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO WIND CHILL
CRITERIA OF -20.  THEREFORE...WILL POST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THE WARM ADVECTION AND RAPIDLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 12Z.

THE WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
DRY AT THESE COLD LEVELS...SO THE SNOW WILL BE VERY FLUFFY IF IT
OCCURS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN IN THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND ALSO
OVERNIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK SOUTH A BIT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. STILL THINKING SOME
SNOW MAY DEVELOP BY EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE PROBABILITY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASES.
WITH CURRENT MODELS SUGGESTING THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW MAY STAY SOUTH...CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT.
THINKING A COUPLE INCHES MOST PLACES...WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
TOWARD THE LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MID DECEMBER.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR THE SNOW AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO EXIT THE AREA BY 13-14Z
THIS MORNING...A LITTLE EARLIER AT KMSN. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SOME WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVING AFTER 06Z THU...TONIGHT...COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE. ALSO EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

BRISK WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV