Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A FAIRLY MODEST JET SPEED MAX ACROSS ILLINOIS AND THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOME WEAKLY CONFLUENT. LIKEWISE THE WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
BECOMES DOWNWARD LATE TONIGHT.  THE 700 MB RH IS HIGH UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...BUT A RATHER STRONG GRADIENT SETS UP
WITH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVELS BECOME
MOIST...BUT DRY OUT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. ALL
IN ALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES.

THE 700 AND 850 MB LOWS PUSH ACROSS THE ILLINOIS BORDER AREAS LATER
TODAY BUT THEY TOO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN.

THE MESO MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAKENING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH...BUT
WITH PERIODS OF ON AND OFF AGAIN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY WEATHER AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOL EAST
FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR AT LEAST THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. INLAND
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S WHILE THE LAKESHORE WILL BE
STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WI NOW AS MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...
EVEN THE DRIER GFS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
FOR US. A GUSTY EAST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. I LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S LAKESHORE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BE EVEN COOLER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL USHER DRY AIR DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STATIONED
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND SUN NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM THE
LAKE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE MAY
ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WI. THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECWMF WITH
850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHERN WI ON WED. THE COOLER AIR WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND SOME IFR.  THEN LATE TONIGHT
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE FROM THE NORTH. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO 3 TO 5 MILES IN THE SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGE TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. RATHER BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS ASSURES HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH MORNING...AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER WINDS GRADUALLY LOWER.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



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