000
FXUS63 KMKX 020945
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND IL FOR TODAY WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS OF MID-UPPER 20S EXPECTED WITH THE FULL
SUNSHINE. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE TNT AS THE 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB
HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW UNTIL AFTER
09Z. AFTER 09Z AND BY 12Z...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE 850-
700 MB WAA/FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH PWS INCREASING TO 0.50-0.70
INCHES.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL WI THROUGH 18Z AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 00Z. THERE IS
STILL FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS... ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL SHOWING THE WARM LAYER /850MB TEMP OF 0 TO
3C/ GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST WI FROM 15Z-21Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE LATE TUE MORNING IN FAR SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE
SURFACE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S. SLEET IS POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY WAUKESHA TO JANESVILLE MIDDAY... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM LAYER MAKES IT.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RATHER LOW WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN. IT LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL... WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
DURING TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM... IMPACTING  RUSH
HOUR. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS TRICKY FOR PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT. MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND REDUCE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY MID TUE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY TOWARD MADISON AND SOUTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 6 PM TUE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WNW AND INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE
FLURRIES... PRECIP WILL BE DONE AROUND THIS TIME. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY WED MORNING.

GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF THE QUICK-HITTING SNOW DURING TUE MORNING RUSH
HOUR... DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN CALM
DOWN AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER MILDER AIR BACK INTO WI
ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECTING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS DRY FOR SATURDAY BUT HAS THE CLIPPER
SNOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO MUCH OF
TNT. SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z-12Z TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE AM. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE WI
LATE TUE AM INTO THE AFT. CIGS WILL TRANSITION FROM MVFR CIGS TO
LESS THAN 1 KFT BTWN 12Z TUE AND 15Z TUE WITH VERY LOW CIGS THE
REMAINDER OF TUE. VSBYS OF 3/4 MILE TO 1 1/2 MILE IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SNOW TUE AM.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z TUE-00Z THU. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TURNING THE WINDS TO THE WEST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC