Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261029 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
529 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOOKS AS IF THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SW CWA COULD BE
CLIPPED BY THE FAR NORTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING AND KEEP
THEM GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DBQ. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MORNING SYSTEM
COULD LIMIT HEATING AND DEGREE OF RESULTANT INSTABILITY SO KEPT
AFTERNOON POPS IN SLIGHT CATEGORY.

925 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THOUGH SE WINDS WILL KEEP
EASTERN AREAS COOLER...AND DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT EARLY SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE
NORTHWEST STILL HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR UPPER 80S WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST. MODELS INDICATING AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE SW
OF FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK SLIDING IT BY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS NRN IL ALONG 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT. EVEN THE GFS WITH
THE MOST EXPANSIVE QPF FIELD KEEPS BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF MORE NWD
SOLUTION ON CANADIAN AND GFS QPF FIELDS PAN OUT.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA. STEADY WARM
AIR ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAIN
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS ON MONDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A
LITTLE VARIATION IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QPF OVER THE AREA ON ALL MODELS.

NAM/GFS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH ARE A BIT OVERDONE WITH DEW POINTS. WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GETTING NEAR 2.00 INCHES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW...DESPITE QPF SHOWING UP ON GFS/ECMWF. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH WARM 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S MONDAY...AND MID 90S TO AROUND 100 TUESDAY. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING...THEN
DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSITION TO SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT LESS HUMID
AIRMASS IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FOR NOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND PATCHES OF FOG
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY CLIP THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COMPLEX SKIMMING THE IL BORDER AREAS. AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE DECAYING COMPLEX WILL IMPACT OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LEADS TO A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS FORECAST AREA DRY TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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